Bitcoin is an asset that acts and behaves very differently to a lot of others, as well as other markets. The digital currency is a decentralized asset, and this means that its market is not impacted by centralised decisions. In oil, for example, the price can be changed by decisions made by OPEC, but with Bitcoin, there is no one figure that can change how the market moves.
In saying that, there are a few occurrences that happen internally with the coin that are purported to have major roles to play on its overall price and market. One such incident is fast approaching — the Bitcoin mining reward halving. This event, scheduled for around the 12 of May, will have a massive impact on Bitcoin’s mining community, but it could well spill over to its price.
The Bitcoin mining reward halving is where the rewards that come from unlocking a new block on the Bitcoin blockchain are slashed in half. This will be the third time this happens which means the reward of 12.5 BTC for solving an algorithmic equation and unlocking a block will now amount to 6.25 BTC.
This is done in order to keep the coin scarce, and leads to deflation, rather than inflation. So, while this halving will affect miner profitability overnight, its macro-economic impact is pretty straight forward in terms of the market influence. With less reward for each new block means less new Bitcoin being added to the circulating supply. Less new Bitcoin means lower supply, which means higher demand, which should mean a growing price.
However, there is more to it than that, and there are a lot of considerations to look at when deciding if the May 12 halving will cause renewed price action for Bitcoin, or not. Many experts have weighed in on how the Bitcoin mining reward halving will impact its price, and their thoughts are very varied. Some believe it will send the price skyrocketing, some predict no impact whatsoever.
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Historical evidence
Bitcoin has had two halvings in the past, both of these sliced the reward by 50 percent, but interestingly, both of these also saw the price of Bitcoin increase by the same, rather large, percentage.
Twitter Trader and technical analyst, Rekt Capital, predicts that the new all time high for Bitcoin following this halving will be as high as $40,000, based on historical evidence alone. He pointed out that, following the first halving in November 2012, Bitcoin’s price increased from a $2.01 bottom to the top of $270.94 – a 13,000 percent increase. The second halving, in July of 2016, saw Bitcoin go from a bottom of $164.01 a top of $20,074 – a similar increase of 12,000 percent.
Thus, if Bitcoin rallies somewhere between 12,000 and 13,000 percent, then the price would come to a top of anywhere around $40,000 in the coming months, or even years, after this halving event in May.
A slow start
What Rekt Capital does not offer in his prediction is a timeline. Many predictors say that even the simple event of the halving happening will start to move the price of Bitcoin because people will start trading on the potential of the news rather than the impact of it.
However, a more measured prediction comes from mining giant Bitmain’s founder Jihan Wu. Wu has said that he does not think Bitcoin will immediately start taking off following the reward halving due to the fact that the global economy is currently under such pressure with regards to the Covid-19 pandemic.
“As Bitcoin’s market cap grows, its volatility decreases and becomes more stable,” Wu explained. “That means we may not see abrupt spikes in its price. No matter how high Bitcoin goes, one day it will reach a top. Before that, it will see prices with flatline growth with some twists in the next few years.” Wu also added:
“I think the bull this time around may not come immediately after the halving. There likely will be a delay in time.”
Deflation in a time of hyperinflation
Another aspect to consider in this time of financial uncertainty is that Bitcoin could start being much more valued for its deflationary moves in a time where different economies are flirting with inflationary monetary policies.
The USA and its Federal Reserve, for example, have suggested that they are happy to print almost infinite amounts of cash in order to try and float the economy, increase liquidation, and stimulate spending. While this policy would help keep the economy going, it could also severely damage the value of the dollar.
Just like a lower supply means higher demand, and higher value, the printing of money can lead to oversupply and inflation which can debase and devalue the dollar. So, people may start looking at Bitcoin as an anti-correlated asset, and one that will be lessening its supply in the coming years, as a good asset, leading to higher price actions.
Blockstream’s Samson Mow recently responded to anti-Bitcoin economist Nouriel Roubini, who said: “Bitcoin Isn’t Down Because of China, It’s Down Because You Don’t Need It,” while linking to an article on Forbes. Mow’s response pointed out these macroeconomic principles at work.
“Bitcoin is down because we’re still in the phase where we mint 1,800 $BTC a day. At $9,000 price levels, $16.2 million a day is required to maintain a stable price. The upcoming halving will fix this. Weak hands can GTFO,” Mow responded.
Planning ahead
One other aspect to consider when thinking about if Bitcoin’s price is going to rise with the upcoming halving is to consider if the traders and market makers have already priced in the halving’s impact.
This would mean that, in anticipation of the halving, people may have already started buying up Bitcoin, holding onto it, and preparing for its value to increase with lower supply meaning that when the lower supply arrives, the price has already reacted.
Bitcoin miners may be part of the reason why the price may already be in as they have been increasing their own efforts to mine the coin when the rewards are still up, and many of them would have been holding those coins, meaning that there is already less new money entering circulation.
However, Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao recently stated: “I personally believe the halving has not been priced in.”
This is backed up by Alexander Kravets, CEO of CEX.io U.S., who believes that the stock-to-flow model — measuring the size of existing supply versus yearly production — has worked out correctly in the past. Kravets has predicted that:
“If we consider Bitcoin a commodity like the CFTC does, then Bitcoin — like other commodities — has a built-in floor representing the cost of production. I think what we saw this winter may have been an established price floor set by the miners of around $6,800 — but as the block reward is cut in half, we can see the price floor rise to what many speculate to be just under $9,000.”
Things are looking up
While there are a number of different predictions surrounding the halving, and they are all very different, the majority of them see the price of Bitcoin only going up in the months, and years, to follow. It makes economic sense for this to happen, but when and how it will happen, is a lot more uncertain.
Bitcoin has, for most of its history, been on an upward trend as it was the best performing asset over the last decade. As things go on, it only makes more sense that the coin will keep rising along with ongoing decreases in its supply.
In order to try and be a part of the next major price action from Bitcoin, it is imperative to find a good exchange and platform to start trading and getting into Bitcoin.
There are many different Bitcoin trading platforms out there currently, but PrimeXBT ranks as one of the best options for extracting maximum opportunity out of the upcoming Bitcoin halving. Of course, buying Bitcoin is one way to make money off the halving, and PrimeXBT makes getting your hands on BTC very easy with excellent mobile app for Android and Apple, this means buying Bitcoin on the go is simple, and with minimum deposits of only 0.001 BTC (less than 10 dollars) that can be made via a BTC address, with USD or even through altcoin via Changelly, it is very easy to enter the market with PrimeXBT.
But, what sets PrimeXBT apart from other platforms is that it allows users to profit off of Bitcoin regardless of which direction the price of the coin goes after the halving. PrimeXBT lets traders short or long the Bitcoin price which means that even if the coin loses value after the halving, you can still profit through using short positions on PrimeXBT. There is also the option to hedge positions by opening long and short positions simultaneously as following the halving there are unprecedented price movements expected. PrimeXBT also allows for major profits because it offers up to 100x leverage — which means the potential for exponential profits when used in conjunction with the many other features PrimeXBT offers traders to succeed. These profits are further maximized by the fact that PrimeXBT has some of the lowest fees for trading around that gets better the more you use the platform with its progressive fee discount system that can cut fees by an additional 50 percent for big-time traders.
PrimeXBT is a great trading tool to use before, and after the Bitcoin halving because the many different advanced trading tools offer traders a chance to master almost any movement the market makes. We have seen that the predictions of what will happen after the halving are so varied that it pays to be able to use things like Stop Loss orders, Take Profit Orders and OCO orders that PrimeXBT offers.
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This mining reward halving is predicted to be a major event for the Bitcoin market in the coming weeks before it happens, as well as for a long time afterwards. Having a platform like PrimeXBT with its robust and anglie trading options, set up with a customisable interface to how you like to trade, means that there is a big opportunity to maximize profits like no other time in Bitcoin’s history. To get started on making profits off this upcoming event, regardless of which way the market moves, sign up for PrimeXBT here.
