The DOGE price took a big hit during the recent market crash as it lost over 17% and is now trading around $0.21.
Crypto veteran Ali Martinez posted a couple of viral DOGE charts in which he highlighted worrying signs for Dogecoin holders.
What you'll learn 👉
Technical Analysis Signals Potential Downside
Martinez’s chart analysis shows Dogecoin’s long-term price movements within an ascending channel starting around 2015. DOGE maintained this channel with regular rallies and corrections until 2021, when it experienced a massive parabolic run-up, breaking well beyond the channel to above $0.70 before retracing significantly.
After the 2021 peak, DOGE fell heavily, dropping back into the channel and entering a lengthy sideways accumulation phase between $0.05 and $0.10. Over recent months, DOGE broke out from this accumulation zone and rallied towards $0.50, but has since faced strong resistance and is now pulling back.
The Fibonacci retracement levels on Martinez’s chart are particularly concerning. DOGE recently broke below the key 0.786 level (approximately $0.1978), which previously acted as resistance and support. Breaking below this level suggests increased downside risk. If the decline continues, DOGE could fall to the 0.618 level (around $0.0958), a historically important retracement level.
If #Dogecoin $DOGE drops below $0.19, the probability of a deeper correction toward $0.060 significantly increases! pic.twitter.com/6OLjt66X0B
— Ali (@ali_charts) February 25, 2025
In a worst-case scenario, DOGE might retrace to the 0.5 level (approximately $0.0316), which coincides with major accumulation periods before the 2021 run. Though unlikely in the near term, a full retracement could take DOGE back to the deep support at the 0.236 level (about $0.0059).
The ascending parallel channel structure indicates an overall long-term uptrend, though price moves between its bands. The black horizontal support zone around $0.13 is critical, as it aligns with previous higher lows and structural support. Higher Fibonacci extensions show potential resistance areas at $0.50, $1.00, $4.10, $10.04, and $36.32 if DOGE were to resume an uptrend.
Martinez warns that if DOGE falls below $0.19, the probability of a deep correction to $0.06 significantly increases. This aligns with technical analysis, as $0.19 corresponds to the 0.786 Fibonacci level, and losing it opens the door for lower retracement targets. The next key support region would be between $0.07 and $0.06, which aligns with historical accumulation phases.
Read also: 3 Best Altcoins to Buy the Dip as Bitcoin Crashes Below $90K – Hint: Not XRP
Dogecoin Network Activity Shows Alarming Decline
The on-chain metrics in Martinez’s analysis reveal an even more concerning trend. On November 21, 2024, DOGE had 1,292,770 new addresses and was trading at $0.3868. This high level of network activity coincided with a relatively strong price level. The total number of active addresses at this point was around 2.66 million.
#Dogecoin $DOGE network activity has declined by 95%, dropping from 2.66 million active addresses in November to just 130,282 today! pic.twitter.com/SlH3qTuMP6
— Ali (@ali_charts) February 25, 2025
From December 2024 to February 2025, the number of active addresses steadily declined. By February 23, 2025, the number of new addresses had plummeted to just 30,815. The total number of active addresses dropped to 130,282, marking a 95% decline from November.
DOGE’s price followed a downward trend but did not crash as dramatically as the active addresses. On February 23, 2025, DOGE was trading at $0.2433, down from its November levels but not in complete collapse.
The drop from 2.66 million active addresses to just 130,282 suggests fewer users are transacting, trading, or interacting with the DOGE network. This is often considered a bearish sign since fewer active users typically mean reduced demand and utility.
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