Solana price is kicking off the week with a burst of strength. The token is up more than 3% and trading around $208.15, while trading volume has jumped over 40% in the past day. On the surface, that’s an encouraging sign for bulls. But analysts warn that the bigger picture is more complicated.
The rally that pushed Solana higher earlier this month has already been fully unwound, and several publicly traded companies that hold large Solana treasuries are still deep in the red. Until those stocks start to recover, many market watchers think it will be hard for SOL to build a lasting uptrend.
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Reasons Behind the Recent Pump
Part of today’s excitement comes from ETF momentum. The U.S. SEC faces multiple deadlines in October for crypto exchange-traded funds, including Solana-focused products from Grayscale and WisdomTree.
Analysts like Nate Geraci and James Seyffart believe approvals could unlock institutional demand similar to what Bitcoin experienced during its ETF run.
Solana’s own strong 90-day performance, up more than 37%, shows that investors are already pricing in some of that potential. Hashdex has also added SOL to its product lineup, another sign that institutional players are preparing for a possible green light.
There’s also growing attention on a technical debate that could reshape Solana’s network. Jump Crypto’s Firedancer team has proposed removing the current 60-million compute unit block cap once the Alpenglow upgrade is complete.
That change could let Solana’s throughput grow with validator hardware, a move that would boost its appeal for DeFi and NFT activity.
Some critics worry it might increase centralization by favoring large validators, but for now, the market seems focused on the promise of higher scalability rather than the risks.
What the Treasury-Linked Charts Are Showing
Despite these bullish sparks, the equity side of Solana’s ecosystem tells a different story. Charts shared by market watcher Ted show that several key Solana-exposed stocks are still well below their peaks.
Forward Industries, Sol Strategies, Sharps Technology, and DeFi Development Corp have all dropped sharply from their all-time highs, with some down more than 70%.
$SOL has erased the entire move made during the $1.5 billion buy.
— Ted (@TedPillows) September 28, 2025
And now, Solana treasury companies' stocks are looking very weak.$FORD: Down 40% from ATH$CYFRF: Down 85% from ATH$STSS: Down 65% from ATH$DFDV: Down 70% from ATH
Until these stocks start to recover, any big… pic.twitter.com/VszezYnyvD
Trader SLTP points out that this weakness matters because it signals fragile liquidity and waning institutional confidence.
He notes that the $1.5 billion buy pump that drove Solana price higher has already been erased, and as long as these treasury-linked equities remain under pressure, it’s tough for SOL to find strong, sustained bid support.
Yeah, this is the thing with $SOL rn, the $1.5B buy pump already got fully unwound, and now treasury-linked equities bleeding out just adds more pressure.
— SLTP (@SLTP_trade) September 28, 2025
As long as these Solana-exposed stocks ($FORD, $CYFRF, $STSS, $DFDV) keep tanking, it’s tough for $SOL to find sustained bid…
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Solana Price Market Outlook
Solana’s immediate price action is upbeat, but analysts remain cautious about calling this the start of a longer bull run.
SLTP says he would only treat a move as a real trend shift if SOL price can reclaim and hold above $200 with conviction, and even then, he wants to see confirmation from the stocks that represent big holders of Solana.
For now, the combination of ETF speculation and scalability upgrades is giving SOL a short-term lift, but lasting upside may depend on whether those treasury-linked companies can stabilize and recover.
Until that happens, many traders view every bounce as just that, a bounce, rather than the beginning of a new, sustained trend higher.
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