This Bitcoin Indicator Looks ‘Very Much’ Like in 2016, Here’s Why March Was Not BTC Price Cycle Top
Crypto analyst CryptoCon shared insights on Bitcoin’s price trends, challenging the idea that March 2024 marked the peak of its cycle. According to his analysis, the event was a “power move” rather than the cycle top, suggesting that Bitcoin still has room to grow.
The technical indicators, specifically the Monthly Fisher Transform, support this outlook, drawing comparisons to Bitcoin’s market behavior in 2016.
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March 2024’s ‘Power Move’ and Halving Cycles
CryptoCon’s tweet introduces the concept of a “power move” within Bitcoin cycles, highlighting that these mid-cycle spikes are notable but not final. The chart by Crypto Con outlines past Bitcoin halving events, which typically occur every four years, decreasing the mining rewards and influencing the cryptocurrency’s price trajectory.
These halving cycles are represented by color-coded sine waves in CryptoCon’s analysis, marking each period between halvings. The analyst points out that while March 2024 saw a considerable price rise, it mirrors similar movements in 2016 and earlier cycles.
These moments, dubbed “mid-cycle power moves,” occurred in June 2011, June 2016, and June 2019, followed by more substantial growth leading to the actual cycle peak.
Monthly Fisher Transform and 2025 Projections
The Monthly Fisher Transform indicator plays a key role in CryptoCon’s outlook, helping to identify market reversals. This technical tool shows oscillating lines that track false crossovers, which can mislead investors about a market’s turning point.
According to CryptoCon, the market conditions in 2024 closely resemble those in 2016, when a mid-cycle power move occurred but did not mark the cycle’s final peak.
Looking ahead, CryptoCon anticipates the first and final cycle top between October and December 2025. The chart projects this peak based on past cycle trends, indicating that Bitcoin’s highest price point in this cycle has yet to be reached.
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Optimistic Outlook for Bitcoin’s Bull Market
CryptoCon’s analysis aligns with the belief that March 2024 was not Bitcoin’s final high but a precursor to a more substantial bull market ahead. His comparison of current market conditions to 2016 strengthens this view, suggesting that the real bull run is still to come.
While March 2024 witnessed a “power move,” CryptoCon emphasizes that higher prices are expected before Bitcoin’s cycle top is reached, leaving room for further growth in the coming years.
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