Toncoin has been crushed this cycle. After peaking during the last bull run, the TON price dropped roughly 86% from its all-time high.
That kind of reset usually signals deep bear market damage. But one analyst believes this is exactly the type of setup that precedes major reversals.
Crypto Patel argues that TON may be forming the base for a move that could eventually stretch toward $30. It’s an aggressive projection, but his thesis is rooted entirely in technical structure.
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Here’s What The Toncoin Chart Is Showing
According to the analysis, TON is now sitting inside a major higher-timeframe demand zone between $1.10 and $0.80. This region previously acted as accumulation before the last major expansion phase.
The TON price dipped into this area and briefly swept liquidity near the lows. That move can be interpreted as a bear trap, a flush below support before a recovery attempt.
The key invalidation level sits at $0.75. As long as TON holds above that line on a higher timeframe basis, the macro structure remains intact. A sustained break below it would weaken the bullish case significantly.
The idea is after a full 86% drawdown, price has returned to the zone where the previous bull cycle began.
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The Level That Changes the Trend For TON
Right now, TON is still inside consolidation. The structure only shifts once a specific level is reclaimed.
That level is $1.95. On the Toncoin chart, $1.95 represents both horizontal resistance and the area where the descending trend structure would break.
A decisive move above it would indicate a trend reversal and a change from base building to expansion.
If this breakout happens, new significant resistances await at $2.65, $6.90, and then $15. These are historical reaction zones where price previously paused or reversed.
Clearing those opens the door for the extended target of $30, a scenario that would mirror the prior cycle’s explosive rally.
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Moreover, the analyst also highlights the broader cycle pattern. Between 2022 and 2023, TON spent months building a deep accumulation base at macro lows. That base was followed by a roughly 700% rally into the cycle high.
From 2024 to 2025, a 86% price reset occurred, which reset the previous expansion. Now, in 2026, TON is re-testing the initial demand area from where the last significant price move began.
A rounded base appears to be forming in this zone, which often precedes larger breakouts, if confirmation levels are cleared.
For now, the roadmap is straightforward.
Hold above $0.75 to keep the macro structure alive. Reclaim $1.95 to confirm trend reversal. Then target $2.65, $6.90, $15, and potentially $30 if expansion accelerates.
The $30 projection sounds shocking. But in percentage terms, it would not be unprecedented for a crypto asset coming off an 80%+ reset. The next move depends on one thing: can the TON price flip $1.95 and prove the downtrend is over?
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