A new post from crypto analyst Shanaka looks interesting, not because it’s bullish, but because it outlines the most binary setup altcoins have faced in years. After a brutal multi-year collapse driven by failed memecoins, diluted liquidity, and institutional flows that concentrated almost entirely into Bitcoin, Shanaka argues that the altcoin market is finally showing signs of life again. But he’s also clear: the resurrection has a timer.
Altcoins were widely declared dead in 2024. The evidence seemed overwhelming.
More than 1.5 million new tokens launched, most with no utility. Nearly 60% were malicious, and 97% of memecoins evaporated within months. Liquidity thinned, conviction broke, and on-chain transparency made every move predictable before it even happened. At the same time, Bitcoin ETFs absorbed $179.5 billion, with virtually no spillover into Ethereum or the broader altcoin market. The old cascade (BTC → ETH → alts) was cut off at the source.
Then 2025 changed everything.
More than 130 altcoin ETF filings hit the SEC. Over 30 were approved, bringing $5.87 billion in fresh institutional inflows. Bitcoin dominance dropped from 65.1% in June to 58% by November, showing that capital was finally leaking wider into the market. Ironically, Shanaka notes that the same institutions blamed for “killing” altcoins in 2024 (BlackRock, Fidelity, Bitwise) are now building the new downstream flow.
But that flow has one critical enemy: dilution.
THE ALTCOIN RESURRECTION HAS A TIMER
— Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ (@shanaka86) December 2, 2025
Everyone declared altcoins dead.
$179.5 billion in Bitcoin ETF assets. Zero downstream spillover. The cascade that once flowed from BTC to ETH to alts was severed at the source.
1.5 million new tokens launched in 2024. 59% were malicious.… pic.twitter.com/QE8OQnLm70
The Race Between Inflows and Inflation
According to Shanaka, the next chapter is brutally mathematical. Altcoins face $3 billion in monthly token unlocks, with an average 18% price destruction after each major unlock. Unless institutional ETF inflows grow faster than new supply hits the market, any perceived revival becomes just another dead cat bounce.
He frames the outcome with two paths:
If alt ETF inflows exceed $50 billion by Q4 2026:
Altcoin dominance stabilizes between 15–25%, the market consolidates to 100–500 real protocols, and yield-driven infrastructure becomes sustainable again.
If unlocks outpace absorption:
Dominance sinks below 10%, making most altcoins effectively uninvestable to institutions. Only BTC and ETH remain relevant at scale.
In Shanaka’s view, this is not a cycle anymore, it’s a countdown.
The old game rewarded patience.
The new game rewards timing.
He ends with two numbers every serious trader should track going forward:
- Alt ETF inflows above $1 billion per week → signals accumulation
- Token unlocks above $5 billion per month → signals exit
The altcoin resurrection may be real.
But the window is finite, and perhaps closing faster than most people realize.
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