Kaspa could eventually become home to a fully permissionless prediction market, at least if an experimental application currently being developed reaches mainnet.
Developer Manyfest recently shared details of a project he has been building with Maxibitcat, based on a proposal for an open prediction market running on Kaspa.
Nothing has been officially announced by Kaspa itself, and there is no guarantee that the application will reach production.
Still, the post caught our attention because it points to a very different potential use case for Kaspa beyond payments and transfers.
What you'll learn 👉
How a Kaspa Prediction Market Could Work
The proposed application would allow users to create and participate in binary prediction markets without a central operator.
A prediction position would exist as a tradable KCC-20 token, with additional logic used to determine the final outcome.
KCC-20 is Kaspa’s fungible-token covenant standard. Its specification defines how token state and transfers can operate through Kaspa’s covenant-based UTXO model. The standard is currently marked Final in the Kaspa KCC repository.
The unusual part is the proposed resolution mechanism.
Rather than relying on a company or administrator to decide which side of a market won, the design uses voting combined with a lottery mechanism intended to give participants, including those on the losing side, an incentive to report the result honestly.
TLDR- A fully open, decentralized and permissionless prediction market application on Kaspa. In the last few months I have been working with @maxibitcat mapping and coding his proposal for a permissionless prediction market into an Argent app. He proposed a voting resolution mechanism that utilizes a lottery to incentivize the losing side of a binary market to vote honestly (see more in his original post). It felt like a great use case for KCC20 tokens. A prediction is held as a tradable, fungible KCC20 token representing the prediction asset, with extended logic to support voting. A few things worth sharing: 1. Argent is a fantastic tool that enables coding this complex covenant system with ease. This idea could also be written as a single EVM program, but when mapping it to the state machine it actually is, it feels natural and obvious to implement it as a UTXO covenant application (image attached). 2. It’s exciting to draft an application that is completely decentralized and open. Everyone would be able to create and participate in any market they wish, while also running their own application code There will be no owner and no beneficiary. The system is completely open, would only benefit the network miners, and would encourage honest participation. 3. The system’s openness and current implementation tie the security of a market to its size. Small-cap markets could be manipulated more easily. Inevitably, people would lose money in this social experiment. 4. I aim to release a mainnet version around the end of this year.
— Manyfest (@manyfest_) November 11, 2026
Manyfest says the application would have no owner and no beneficiary, with fees or economic value flowing toward network miners instead.
Why Kaspa’s UTXO Model Is Interesting Here
Manyfest is building the application using Argent, a framework designed for more complex covenant-based applications on Kaspa.
He argues that prediction markets map naturally onto a UTXO state machine, where different pieces of state can exist across separate coins instead of being managed through one large smart contract.
Kaspa developers have been exploring exactly this type of model through KCC-20, SilverScript and Argent. Argent is designed to coordinate multiple covenant contracts, although the tooling is still developing and has not yet reached the maturity of established EVM ecosystems.
That makes the prediction-market project interesting partly as a test of what Kaspa’s newer programmable infrastructure can actually support.
There Is Already a Serious Limitation
Manyfest also openly acknowledged the biggest weakness in the current design.
Small markets could be easier to manipulate.
Because security is partly tied to the size and participation of each market, a thinly traded prediction could be much easier for one participant or coordinated group to influence.
He explicitly warned that users could lose money as the system develops.
That is important because prediction markets depend on reliable resolution. If participants cannot trust the outcome mechanism, the entire market becomes less useful regardless of how decentralized the underlying application is.
Read also: Kaspa Price Warning: Bulls Need to Defend THIS Level Now
Mainnet Is the Goal, Not a Confirmed Launch
Manyfest says he is aiming for a mainnet version around the end of the year.
That should be treated as a development goal, not a confirmed Kaspa launch date.
There is still testing, security work and application development required before something like this could become a dependable financial product.
But the proposal is worth watching.
If it works, Kaspa would gain a consumer-facing application that goes well beyond transferring KAS or issuing tokens: users could create open prediction markets directly on a proof-of-work network without relying on a centralized operator.
For now, it is an experiment shared by a developer on X.
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