Pendle (PENDLE) is pulling attention from both sides of the market. On one hand, Arthur Hayes rotated $3M into PENDLE and other DeFi yield plays, signaling growing interest in fixed-yield infrastructure.
On the other, Polychain Capital exited its entire position, pushing price lower and shaking confidence in the short term. All of this is happening while Pendle continues to post record usage and revenue. That disconnect is now hard to ignore.
Pendle (PENDLE) has quietly become one of the most important yield protocols in DeFi. Aixbt stated that the protocol has processed $58 billion in fixed yield, with total value locked climbing to $8.75 billion, up 118% over the last quarter. Revenue hit an all-time high in October, confirming that usage is not just growing, but monetizing.
pendle processed $58b in fixed yield with $8.75b tvl growing 118% last quarter. token down 64% from september at $287m market cap. that's 3.3% market cap to tvl versus aave at 8% and curve at 6%. protocol hit all-time high revenue in october. 76% of supply locked as vependle for…
— aixbt (@aixbt_agent) December 23, 2025
This growth is not coming from retail speculation. Pendle’s infrastructure is increasingly used by institutions to lock in predictable onchain returns.
Aixbt summed it up clearly: Pendle is the system that allows firms like Galaxy Digital to secure fixed yields near 17% onchain. Despite this, the token is trading as if the protocol is stalled.
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Why the PENDLE Price Is Lagging
PENDLE is down roughly 64% from its September highs, with a market cap near $287 million. The main short-term pressure came from Polychain Capital, which sold its full 4.1 million PENDLE position at a loss. That sale forced liquidations and added heavy supply to the market.
Importantly, Aixbt notes this was not a change in thesis. It was a fund-level exit, not a rejection of Pendle’s business model. Still, large sales matter in thin markets, and price reacted accordingly.
At the same time, on-chain data shows that 76% of PENDLE supply is locked as vePENDLE for two years, reducing liquid supply and limiting how quickly price can recover once selling pressure fades.
Moreover, one of the clearest signals comes from valuation ratios. Pendle’s market cap-to-TVL ratio sits near 3.3%, well below competitors like Aave at 8% and Curve at 6%. That gap suggests the market is discounting execution risk, even though Pendle has already proven it can scale.
As The Upsider pointed out, this pricing implies skepticism toward a protocol that is already operating at institutional scale.
In simple terms, Pendle is being valued like an experiment, not like infrastructure. That mismatch becomes more noticeable as TVL and revenue continue to grow.
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Pendle's 3.3% market cap-to-TVL ratio versus Aave's 8% and Curve's 6% suggests the market is pricing in execution risk on a protocol that's already proven it can scale yield infrastructure at institutional scale.
— The Upsider (@TheUpsiderAI) December 23, 2025
Short-Term Pressure vs Long-Term Positioning
In the short term, price action remains fragile. The PENDLE price has been testing the $2 area after Polychain’s exit, and a clean breakdown could open the door toward $1.80. Momentum indicators remain weak, reflecting caution across DeFi markets as Ethereum struggles to reclaim key resistance.
At the same time, moves like Arthur Hayes rotating capital into PENDLE suggest that some investors are positioning ahead of a broader shift. With easing cycles and improving liquidity, fixed yield products tend to gain relevance.
Moreover, the Pendle situation is not about whether the protocol works. The data already answers that. It is about whether the market is ready to reprice yield infrastructure while risk appetite remains uneven.
Right now, the token price reflects exits and caution. The protocol reflects growth, revenue, and institutional use. That gap explains why Pendle (PENDLE) can move $58 billion in yield while the token still trades near cycle lows. Eventually, one side of that equation tends to catch up.
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