ONDO price has struggled beside the wider crypto market, and recent reports have created fresh doubts about the project’s direction. However, a closer examination reveals a more complicated picture. Ondo Finance still dominates a growing tokenized asset sector, its perpetual futures platform is expanding, and several wallet groups continue to accumulate ONDO.
Technical data now adds an interesting twist. ONDO price trades near $0.37 after bouncing from an ascending channel that began near the end of June. That setup may support a short term recovery, although one major barrier still stands between ONDO and a larger breakout.
Crypto analyst Gerhard examined reports that Ondo Finance had dropped plans for a tokenized asset blockchain to pursue a private, high speed trading network. Such reports could make the project appear ready to leave its original tokenization strategy behind.
Gerhard does not believe that interpretation presents the complete picture. Ondo Finance continues to discuss real world asset tokenization across its official channels. The project’s founder has also spoken about how financial companies such as Fidelity and Charles Schwab could eventually enter the tokenized securities market.
Ondo currently offers several products across the ecosystem:
- Tokenized real world assets
- A stablecoin product
- Borrowing and lending services
- Integrations across public blockchains
- A perpetual futures platform
BlackRock has previously described Ondo as a leading standard for tokenized assets. That relationship strengthens the project’s position within a sector where traditional stocks and other financial products can move onto blockchain networks.
Ondo Perps therefore appears to be an expansion of the ecosystem rather than a replacement for its main tokenization business.
What you'll learn 👉
Ondo Perps Is Becoming an Important Revenue Source
Gerhard noted that the wider Ondo Finance network generates between $200,000 and $300,000 in fees. That figure has shown limited growth, but Ondo Perps presents a different picture.
Daily trading volume on Ondo Perps has climbed close to $250 million. Typical perpetual futures fees could place daily revenue near $125,000 at that volume. The platform remains in beta, which leaves room for activity to increase as more features become available.
Competition remains a serious consideration. Hyperliquid currently controls a large portion of the decentralized perpetual futures market and holds approximately $6 billion in total value locked. Ondo must compete against that established position as it develops its own platform.
Still, Ondo does not need to defeat Hyperliquid for Ondo Perps to become valuable. Strong trading activity could provide an additional income source beside tokenized stocks, lending products, and other real world assets.
ONDO Token Unlocks Are Becoming Easier for the Market to Absorb
Poor token performance cannot be explained by the broader market alone. Gerhard compared ONDO with the combined market capitalization of altcoins outside the top 10. That comparison showed consistent underperformance until early April.
Token dilution appears to have played a major role. Large unlocks release tokens for the team, early investors, and private sale participants. These additions can increase available supply and place pressure on ONDO price.
Circulating supply could grow by almost 40% over the next year. That remains an important risk, although every future unlock represents a smaller portion of the existing supply. Gerhard expects token dilution to reach zero within approximately 3 years.
Recent relative performance has improved as well. ONDO has begun forming higher highs and higher lows against the wider altcoin market. That structure does not guarantee continued strength, but it differs from the persistent weakness recorded earlier.
Read Also: Kaspa Price Prediction: Why KAS Could Make New Millionaires in 2027
ONDO Holder Data Shows Continued Retail Accumulation
Onchain information provides another reason the bearish ONDO price chart may not reveal everything. Gerhard’s Dune Analytics dashboard tracks wallets across several ownership categories.
Ethereum currently has about 206,000 ONDO holders. Wallets containing at least 3,000 ONDO tokens have increased consistently, and medium sized holders with roughly 30,000 tokens have followed a similar pattern.
Retail wallets grew from approximately 20,000 to 26,000 over the past year. That represents growth above 30%. Larger wallets have accumulated more slowly and occasionally recorded steep declines, possibly because some tokens moved onto centralized exchanges.
Demand must grow faster than circulating supply for ONDO to outperform consistently. Current wallet growth offers some encouragement, although the coming 40% supply expansion remains a challenge.
ONDO Price Could Climb 20% Before Meeting Major Resistance
A look at the ONDO price chart shows the token near $0.37. Price currently rests around the lower boundary of an ascending channel that has remained active since late June.
Continued support near this boundary could send ONDO price toward the channel’s upper section. Such a move would represent a potential increase of approximately 20% from the current area.
The broader chart presents a tougher obstacle near $0.48. This resistance has limited ONDO price since December 2025. A lasting recovery would require the token to break above that level and hold it as support.
Earlier price action placed ONDO inside an accumulation zone between $0.232 and $0.30. Price eventually broke above that range and now appears to be consolidating as buyers attempt to regain control.
Gerhard’s moving average test offers further context. His analysis found that the 15 day and 17 day simple moving averages historically provided useful ONDO entry and exit signals relative to Bitcoin. Current momentum remains bullish under that model, though ONDO could still decline by approximately 15% without breaking the wider trend.
ONDO price may therefore offer an interesting short term setup near $0.37, but calling it a definite buying opportunity would overlook the supply risks and $0.48 resistance. The next move inside the ascending channel could reveal whether the recent bounce has enough strength to challenge that barrier.
FAQs
Subscribe to our YouTube channel for daily crypto updates, market insights, and expert analysis.
