Last Time This Happened Dogecoin (DOGE) Price Crashed 44%, Analyst Warns

February 17, 2025

Yesterday, news broke out that there will be weekly livestreams featuring Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, where they discuss recent developments in the Department of Energy (D.O.G.E.). Of course, almost immediately, tokens on both Ethereum and Solana's ecosystem were created with the same name. We will be focusing mostly on the one on Ethereum since in this ecosystem there are more PolitFi traders who can drive the price up. Is Dogecast the Next Big Meme Coin? Current market cap of Dogecast on this network is around $7 million and this could potentially go much higher, especially when Elon starts tweeting about it. He actually already confirmed 2 days ago that there will be weekly updates about DOGE. However, he still needs to use the actual word "Dogecast" and this could go bananas. https://twitter.com/DogecastETH/status/1857685094166667413 A lot will also depend on how frequently Elon discusses this topic and when the podcast actually launches. According to reports, it's starting "soon," and once the official date is announced, it could potentially benefit the price as traders will have a specific date to focus on. This kind of concrete timeline often creates anticipation in the market. Of course, note that this is a new meme coin that relies mostly only on a narrative that could be hot in the upcoming days but it also depends on their CTO and team. If they decide to rug pull, it can easily go to 0. However, if they don't do that and narrative stays hot, we are potentially looking at $50 million market cap or even $100+. Remains to be seen in any case.

Dogecoin technical and on-chain metrics are showing some worrying data that investors must not overlook. This was posted by Ali on X earlier today. Based on the analysis, the MVRV ratio for DOGE has crossed below its 200-day moving average—an event that has previously led to price crashes of up to 44%.

The MVRV ratio (Market Value to Realized Value) compares Dogecoin’s current market capitalization to its realized capitalization. It measures whether the coin is potentially overvalued or undervalued. When this ratio falls below its 200-day moving average (MA), it creates what analysts call a “Death Cross.” This has historically signaled imminent price declines.

What you'll learn 👉

Historical DOGE Price Precedent Suggests Caution

This isn’t the first time Dogecoin has experienced this particular warning sign. Looking at historical data, we can see two previous instances where similar Death Cross events occurred based on Ali’s analysis:

In late 2023, the first Death Cross resulted in a 26% price decline for DOGE in the period that followed. Investors who weren’t watching these signals closely experienced losses.

The second occurrence happened in mid-2024, and the results were even more severe. Then, DOGE’s price plummeted by 44% after the Death Cross appeared.

These historical patterns have made analysts particularly concerned about the current situation. While past performance doesn’t guarantee future results, these consistent declines following similar technical signals have put the crypto community on high alert.

Dogecoin Whale Activities Declining

Adding to the technical concerns, crypto analyst Ali also pointed out another troubling development for Dogecoin:

“Whale activity on the #Dogecoin $DOGE network has declined by nearly 88% since mid-November!”

This reduction in large-scale transactions suggests that major investors may be pulling back from DOGE. It is a stark contrast to Dogecoin data from a few days ago. Whales—investors who hold large amounts of cryptocurrency—often have big influence on market movements. Their reduced activity could signal a lack of confidence in DOGE short-term prospects.

What This Means for Dogecoin Investors

The convergence of these warning signs has many DOGE holders contemplating their next moves. If history repeats itself, Dogecoin could be looking at another price correction in the coming weeks or months.

The exact magnitude of any potential drop remains uncertain, but the historical range of 26% to 44% suggests what might come.

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Last Time This Happened Dogecoin (DOGE) Price Crashed 44%, Analyst Warns

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