A well-known Kaspa community member has raised alarms with a bold forecast. In a new chart shared on X, they warned that Kaspa (KAS) could still drop another 50% from current levels, which would mark an 80% total drawdown from its all-time high. The post compares Kaspa’s recent market action to Bitcoin’s historic 2014 bear market, where BTC fell 80% and spent nearly two years building a base before launching into a 100x rally.
What you'll learn 👉
Kaspa Chart Analysis
The chart tracks KAS on a daily timeframe and overlays Fibonacci retracement levels. Right now, KAS trades near $0.082, slightly above the key 0.5 Fibonacci level of $0.0726. The analysis highlights several risk zones below:
- The 0.382 line near $0.055 is one possible next stop if selling pressure increases.
- A deeper pullback to $0.035 (0.236 level) would match the scale of Bitcoin’s 2014 drawdown.
Inside the chart, a smaller inset shows Bitcoin’s 2014–2015 price pattern, where BTC crashed from roughly $1,000 to around $200 before starting its massive recovery. The analyst circles points where Bitcoin found support and then spent years consolidating, suggesting that Kaspa could be at a similar stage now.
Read also: The Ugly Truth About Kaspa – Why KAS Might Be the WORST Altcoin to Hold
Why the Warning Feels Real
Kaspa has been one of 2025’s quieter performers. After a strong 2023–2024 run, price action slowed dramatically this year. While the network’s technology and blockDAG design keep attracting developers, the market has lacked new catalysts to drive demand. Trading volumes have thinned, and the coin has steadily drifted lower.
If history really does rhyme, a 50% drop toward the $0.04 area isn’t impossible. Crypto cycles often overshoot on the way down before setting up the next major rally. Bitcoin’s own path from 2013–2015 is a prime example, and that’s exactly the comparison Kaspa’s chartist is pointing to.
Why It Might Not Be All Doom
The other side of the chart matters too. Bitcoin’s deep 2014–2015 correction laid the foundation for its next 100x move. If Kaspa mirrors that pattern, the current pain could be the start of a long-term base rather than the end of the story. Fundamentals remain strong: Kaspa’s rapid block times and growing ecosystem still draw attention, and the team continues to ship updates even as price cools.
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