Bitcoin has been consolidating within the $60,000 to $70,000 range for over 60 days, with the cryptocurrency mostly hugging the Range Low area in recent weeks. This price action bears a closer resemblance to the 2016 post-halving pattern than the 2020 one, according to a recent newsletter by Rekt Capital, a renowned crypto analyst.
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2016 Post-Halving Price Behavior and the “Danger Zone”
In the 21 days following the 2016 halving, Bitcoin continued to dwindle, reaching a low range and even experiencing a -11% downside deviation before reversing to the upside. This observation has led to the introduction of the concept of the Post-Halving “Danger Zone” (purple).
According to the 2016 post-halving price behavior, the “Danger Zone” suggests that if Bitcoin were to see additional downside towards or below the current Range Low at $60,600, it would likely occur within the next two weeks or so.
Pre-Halving “Danger Zone” and its Accuracy
Rekt Capital extensively discussed the Pre-Halving “Danger Zone” (orange) during the pre-halving period, which served as inspiration for the Post-Halving “Danger Zone”. The Pre-Halving “Danger Zone” denoted where pre-halving retraces tend to begin and proved to be quite accurate in preceding the -18% pullback that occurred in March 2024.
The -18% March pullback in 2024 occurred approximately 30 days before the halving. In comparison, the pre-halving retrace occurred 28 days before the halving in 2016 and 14 days before the halving in 2020.
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Show more +Bitcoin’s 2024 Price Action Resembling 2016 Tendencies
Bitcoin’s price action in 2024 has resembled the tendencies observed in 2016 during the pre-halving period. As a result, it may be worth considering if BTC could continue to replicate 2016-like price tendencies in the immediate weeks following the halving.
In the three weeks following the 2016 halving, Bitcoin experienced some downside volatility below its Range Low. Given that BTC is currently at the Range Low and has been around this area since the 2024 halving occurred, it is possible that a similar scenario could unfold in the coming weeks.
As Bitcoin continues to consolidate between $60,000 and $70,000 in the post-halving period, it is essential for investors and traders to consider the potential implications of the Post-Halving “Danger Zone.”
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