Bitcoin is starting October on a strong note. The BTC price is up more than 3% today, trading at $117,171. Volume is also higher by over 10%, showing fresh momentum in the market.
After weeks of sideways action and a failed attempt to hold above $124K in September, BTC looks ready to test key levels again.
Two main forces are driving the move. On one side, Galaxy Digital reportedly moved 1,190 BTC (about $135M) to Binance, sparking fears of potential selling pressure.
On the other, demand from institutions like Metaplanet and steady inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, which now manage around $149.3B in assets, absorbed the liquidity without much price damage. That balance highlights how resilient BTC remains at current levels.
Adding fuel to the rally, the U.S. government shutdown on October 1 pushed investors toward safe-haven assets.
Bitcoin price gained nearly 3% in just six hours, easily outpacing gold’s 0.7% move. With memories of the 2013 shutdown, when BTC rallied 55% in three weeks, traders are watching closely to see if history repeats.
What you'll learn 👉
What the BTC Chart Is Showing
Looking at the 4H chart, Bitcoin price is recovering from its late-September dip toward $110K and is now eyeing resistance near $118K.
The high from September 19 at $124,474 remains the level to beat. A clean breakout above this area could quickly open the path to $128K–$130K, where previous rejection candles cluster.
Support sits at $113K and $110K. As long as Bitcoin remains holding these levels, the setup remains bullish. Breaking below $110K, however, would reverse the picture and raise the chances of retesting $105K.
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Market Indicators
RSI is sitting around 69 on the 4H timeframe, brushing into overbought territory but not yet extreme. That suggests Bitcoin has room for further upside before exhaustion kicks in.
MACD momentum is turning green again, confirming bullish momentum.
Open interest is climbing back above 91K BTC, a sign that traders are reloading positions after September’s washout.
Net long positions have ticked higher, while shorts remain steady, showing conviction but not yet signaling an overheated market. Combined with rising volume, the setup favors continuation if resistance levels break.
BTC Price Short-Term Outlook for October
If the Bitcoin price can take out $118K and $124K, momentum buyers can make a deep push to $130K. ETF flows and institutional demand remain the basis of support, with macro drivers like the government shutdown being a positive narrative.
The risk remains tied to large sell orders and the October 28 MicroStrategy earnings report, which could impact sentiment depending on its Bitcoin treasury strategy.
For now, the path of least resistance is higher, but bulls must clear $124K convincingly to prove that a new October rally is underway.
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