Here’s the EXACT Reason Why Altseason Is About to Begin, But There’s a Catch for ETH and BTC Traders

Crypto analyst Rekt Fencer tweeted that altcoins are now “more oversold than during COVID, the FTX crash, and the tariff war.” He backed this claim with a chart comparing altcoin performance against Ethereum, showing extreme oversold conditions and potential upside of over 130% if history repeats.

What the Chart Shows

The chart compares the OTHERS/ETH ratio on a two-week timeframe, with highlighted zones marking past oversold levels.

  • In 2021, altcoins surged 166% from similar conditions.
  • In 2023, they rallied again, this time by 125%.
  • Today, the chart suggests a possible 132% move ahead, based on the same indicator flashing oversold signals.

The lower panel shows an oscillator that has bottomed three times at similar levels – each time preceding a sharp altcoin recovery against ETH. Fencer interprets this as evidence that altcoins are in the “final shakeout” stage before altseason begins.

Why Some Analysts Remain Skeptical

While the oversold signal is compelling, relying only on these indicators has its risks. Altcoin recoveries in the past were not driven by technicals alone – they aligned with broader shifts in ETH and BTC dominance, as well as liquidity trends in the crypto market.

At present, BTC dominance remains stable just below 60%, which is still historically high. A sharp slide in Bitcoin dominance has often preceded altseasons, but we haven’t seen that yet.

Meanwhile, ETH dominance is slightly under 14%. For context, ETH dominance peaked near 15% in August during its recent rally, and historically altseasons have kicked off when ETH dominance climbs closer to 16%. This suggests the conditions may not be fully aligned for a broad altcoin breakout just yet.

Read also: Not Altseason, We Are in Ethereum Season – Here’s Why!

Opinion: The Signal Isn’t Enough

Rekt Fencer’s optimism is understandable – oversold conditions often do create attractive entry points. But the crypto market is far more complex than one chart. Liquidity flows, ETF-driven capital rotation, and macroeconomic events could easily delay or mute any altcoin rally.

For now, the data shows that altcoins may be due for a bounce. But to call this the “final shakeout” might be premature unless BTC dominance breaks down further and ETH regains strength above 15–16% dominance. Until then, altseason remains a possibility – not a certainty.

Subscribe to our YouTube channel for daily crypto updates, market insights, and expert analysis.

intelligent crypto
How are  regular people making returns of as much as 70% in a year with no risk?  By properly setting up a FREE Pionex grid bot - click the button to learn more.
Crypto arbitrage still works like a charm, if you do it right! Check out Alphador, leading crypto arbitrage bot to learn the best way of doing it.

Tags:

Petar Jovanović
Petar Jovanović

As the Head of Content at Captainaltcoin, I bring years of experience in the crypto industry. With a strong belief in the potential of the web3 market since 2017, I'm passionate about sharing valuable insights and knowledge. Feel free to connect with me on LinkedIn and let's discuss the exciting world of cryptocurrencies and decentralized technologies!

CaptainAltcoin
Logo