A moment of rare clarity appears whenever a major institution begins studying a project that once felt niche. Bittensor finds itself in that moment after a fresh report from Grayscale outlined how the coming halving could reshape TAO price. Curiosity around a potential 5x move grows from a post from a crypto analyst Andy ττ.
A first look at the data shared by analyst Andy ττ sets the stage. The halving pushes emissions from 7,200 TAO each day to 3,600 TAO. A schedule identical to Bitcoin shapes the long-term supply, capped at 21M. A dramatic reduction in new supply becomes interesting only when demand demonstrates real activity, and that is where Bittensor shows unusual growth.
What you'll learn 👉
How Bittensor Activity Strengthens The Case For A TAO Price Shift
A network with 129 active subnets resembles a small city becoming a dense digital economy. Momentum across these subnets gives the Bittensor ecosystem a form of gravity that investors and analysts pay attention to. Subnet market cap went from $100M in March to a $1.4B peak in November. TAO deployment inside subnets moved from 0% in February to 16% by December. Those numbers create a picture of rising participation rather than speculative excitement.
Evidence from the tools built on Bittensor strengthens this pattern. Chutes currently holds the top spot on OpenRouter as the leading inference provider, even ahead of centralized AI competitors. Ridges continues pushing ahead with coding results that outperform Claude 4 on benchmark tests. Movement like this signals that TAO is not just a passive token inside a quiet network. The rhythm of real usage keeps shaping Bittensor’s identity.
🚨This is massive🚨
— Andy ττ (@bittingthembits) December 8, 2025
Grayscale just published their halving thesis for $TAO
Grayscales Bittensor halving report:
The Halving (Dec 14):
• 7,200 TAO/day → 3,600 TAO/day
• Same supply schedule as Bitcoin
• 21M max cap
The Adoption:
• 129 active subnets
• Subnet market cap:… https://t.co/mjutM4fSTQ pic.twitter.com/xSg0HSCSoW
A supply reduction usually attracts attention, although the picture changes once the broader ecosystem also experiences that reduction. Andy ττ explained that a dual halving is approaching Bittensor at the same time. TAO emissions fall by 50%, and alpha emissions inside subnet pools fall in parallel. Scarcity hits the base layer and the subnet layer simultaneously. Every subnet faces a pseudo-halving at the same moment as TAO itself.
Early Bitcoin comparisons appear when looking at subnet supply. Many subnets have a 21M max cap and extremely small circulating supply levels. This creates an environment with low float and slow new emissions. Movement inside this structure can become exaggerated whenever usage grows, a dynamic similar to early proof-of-work ecosystems during their expansion years.
How Subnet Performance Shapes The Bigger Question About A Possible 5x Move For TAO
Subnet valuations give more detail to the TAO price debate. Chutes currently sits near $91.8M. Lium sits close to $62.6M. Targon records about $48.2M while generating $10.4M revenue. Ridges holds about $46.8M while delivering coding accuracy around 73%. These numbers tell a story of small yet active networks building their own value around TAO.
A comparison shared by Andy ττ illustrates the potential upside through a simple hypothetical. Solana’s market cap stands near $77B while TAO sits near $2.85B. Matching Solana’s size would place TAO near $7,400 given the current supply. That figure is strictly a model, not a forecast, although it shows why a 5x move has become a topic rather than an exaggeration.
A second model considers subnet outperformance. A scenario where TAO grows 5x and a strong subnet grows 3x relative to TAO places that subnet near a 15x move. This follows the logic that TAO acts as base money while subnets behave like high-beta assets inside the Bittensor economy. Activity accelerates when circulating supply remains tight.
Ths coming $TAO halving.
— Andy ττ (@bittingthembits) December 8, 2025
Isn't just halving $TAO.
Now, what if Subnets outperforming $TAO?
Only 18% of the max supply exists on many subnets.
Thats 80%+ of their tokens that are still unminted.
Emissions are about to slow down because of the dual halving effect.
That’s… https://t.co/1Hua1MSrWT pic.twitter.com/R4rdNvFxOa
Why Grayscale’s Position Adds Weight To The TAO Price Debate
Interest from Grayscale gives the discussion a more formal tone. The firm filed Form 10 with the SEC while exploring how Bittensor fits inside institutional portfolios. Additional developments from Yuma Asset Management, Stillcore Capital, and the first centralized-exchange subnet called Hippius reveal that Bittensor now attracts structured capital rather than short-term momentum.
Grayscale described Bittensor as the “Y-Combinator of decentralized AI,” a phrase that captures the speed and variety of subnet development. This mirrors the type of early-stage environment that often precedes large ecosystem re-pricing events. The question remains whether this environment is strong enough to support the type of move readers are wondering about.
Read Also: AAVE Price Rally Incoming? This 3-Week Chart Signals a Potential Big Move
What The Data Suggests About A Possible 5x Spike For TAO
A 5x spike for TAO sits inside a range of possibility shared by analysts like Andy ττ. Circulating supply declines during the halving. Subnet alpha declines in parallel. Demand from usage keeps growing. Institutional interest begins forming around structured products. All these threads create a tension that pushes the TAO price discussion toward higher scenarios.
A move of that scale still depends on sustained participation, continued subnet growth, and steady network expansion. The halving introduces an important turning point because it tests whether demand remains strong under tighter supply. The coming weeks offer one of the most revealing periods in Bittensor’s history as analysts track the early impact on TAO price.
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