Expert Reveals the ‘Only Bitcoin Chart You Will Ever Need’, Explains the 5 Phases of BTC Halving
The One Chart for Bitcoin, According to Rekt Capital “This is the one chart you’ll ever need for crypto and Bitcoin in general,” declares popular YouTube channel Rekt Capital in their November 21st video presentation. The 10-minute video comprehensively analyzes Bitcoin’s market cycles, dividing them into three main phases: bear markets, macro accumulation periods, and bull runs.
Bear Markets
As Rekt Capital explains, bear markets represent Bitcoin’s most volatile periods, with average drawdowns of 84.5% over a year’s time. “Bear markets see an average of 84.5% drawdown across one year,” the presenter notes.
Macro Accumulation
Following each bear cycle is a macro accumulation phase, where Bitcoin forms lower highs compared to the previous bull market peak. This period sets the foundation for the next bull run.
Bull Markets
Bull markets emerge out of the macro accumulation stage, showing parabolic growth to new all-time highs over an average of 500 days. “The bull market is spread across those 500 days [after the halving],” says Rekt Capital.
In another video, Rekt Capital delves into the significance of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle and halving events. As the presenter highlights, “Pre-halving rally tends to occur two months before the halving,” often followed by a retracement phase which represents “a bargain buying opportunity” for investors.
Breaking Down the 5 Phases of Bitcoin Halvings In a separate October 18th video, the same YouTube channel provides an in-depth examination of the five phases comprising Bitcoin’s halving cycles.
Pre-Halving Period
The initial pre-halving phase, occurring 180+ days prior to the event, is prone to major volatility. As Rekt Capital notes, “During the pre-halving period, we tend to see lots of upside movement, lots of downside deviation.”
Pre-Halving Rally
Approximately 60 days pre-halving, a rally phase typically emerges, marked by a strong rebound from recent lows. This sets the stage for the next phase.
Pre-Halving Retrace
Following the pre-halving rally is often a retracement ranging from 20-38% in severity. “Pre-halving retrace can be anything from 20% downside to 38% downside,” explains the presenter.
Post-Halving Resistance
The post-halving period involves a consolidation and resistance phase, where prices trend sideways below key thresholds. As Rekt Capital describes it, “we tend to see reaccumulation…consolidating for multiple months.”
Post-Halving Parabolic Upside
The final leg of the halving cycle is the most dramatic, characterized by parabolic increases to new all-time highs and euphoria. “Post-halving parabolic price action…is the most profitable part of the cycle,” notes the video’s creator.
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By delineating these cycles and phases, Rekt Capital provides crypto investors an invaluable roadmap for navigating Bitcoin’s volatile but largely predictable market patterns. Whether it’s timing entries, planning accumulation, or simply setting expectations, the two videos offer perspective into both long-term secular trends and short-term prescriptive opportunities.
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