Crypto expert EGRAG CRYPTO is offering a fresh take on when BTC price might hit its next all-time high on X. He shared that the model originally developed by Benjamin Cowen looks at how Bitcoin’s past cycles have lined up with the 200-week simple moving average (SMA). Based on that pattern, the next big top could arrive around September 2025 or March 2026.
EGRAG CRYPTO posted the chart on X, pointing out that this model has done a solid job in the past at spotting cycle peaks. In previous bull runs, Bitcoin price highs seemed to follow a rhythm, usually hitting their top when the price moved a certain distance away from the 200-week SMA. According to Cowen’s framework, we’re now in Cycle D, and the pieces may already be falling into place for the next major move.
What you'll learn 👉
Bitcoin Chart Structure Reflects Long-Term Market Rhythm
The BTC logarithmic chart spans from 2010 through 2026 and outlines four cycles labeled A through D. The red line represents the 200-week SMA, while two curved white lines frame the Bitcoin price parabolic growth channel. Each cycle saw BTC’s top occur after it distanced itself from the 200W SMA and approached the channel’s upper resistance.
Cycle A and Cycle B both peaked in alignment with the projected trajectory. Cycle C was delayed by around 42 days but remained within the same structural zone. According to the model, Cycle D follows a similar path. Based on the intersection of the projected SMA and the parabolic channel, the next top may appear between Q3 2025 and Q1 2026.
Moreover, the BTC price chart shows the 200-week SMA as the primary support across all market cycles. Historically, Bitcoin has not remained below this level for long. The upper curved trendline has consistently marked resistance at each cycle peak. Bitcoin’s price currently moves within the channel, trading below the midpoint, suggesting room for upward growth if historical trends repeat.
The model also shows that resistance tightens as the cycle progresses. If the pattern holds, BTC may move toward the upper boundary in 2025, placing potential price targets in the $180,000 to $220,000 range.
Read Also: Altcoin Bottom Is In? Key Chart Signals a Major Rotation from Bitcoin
Cycle Timing Suggests New Peak May Be 12–21 Months Away
The timing component of this model is central to the forecast. According to EGRAG CRYPTO, projecting the 200-week SMA leads to two dates with strong structural alignment: September 2025 and March 2026. These projections are based on cycle geometry and historical market rhythm.
While the analysis does not promise outcomes, the consistency across multiple cycles adds weight to the timeline. Traders and macro-focused investors may use this structure to align broader strategies with expected cycle movements. The final outcome, however, will depend on how Bitcoin price responds to long-term support and resistance over the next several quarters.
Subscribe to our YouTube channel for daily crypto updates, market insights, and expert analysis.
We recommend eToro
Wide range of assets: cryptocurrencies alongside other investment products such as stocks and ETFs.
Copy trading: allows users to copy the trades of leading traders, for free.
User-friendly: eToro’s web-based platform and mobile app are user-friendly and easy to navigate.
