A well-known crypto analyst who goes by Orbion on X, and describes himself as an “Ex-BlackRock” professional, has shared a bold prediction: Bitcoin will reach $1 million by 2026.
He argues that this milestone does not depend on mass adoption. Instead, the key factor is liquidity. Out of Bitcoin’s 21 million total supply, Orbion says only around 2 million BTC are truly liquid and available for trading on exchanges. These coins are what set the market price for an asset now worth more than $2 trillion.
Many people believe that $1M per BTC is unrealistic. But Orbion notes that Bitcoin has seen much bigger price multiples before, with rallies of 17x or 20x in previous cycles. From current levels, a 10x would take the price to the $1 million mark.
The difference this time, he says, is that we are moving into the stage of nation-state adoption. History shows that monetary shifts don’t happen slowly – they can flip overnight.
🚨BTC will hit $1 MILLION in 2026
— Orbion (@cryptorbion) September 7, 2025
Most think we need mass adoption, but we don't
Only 2M BTC are truly liquid and control the market
Here's full roadmap for BTC to reach $1,000,000👇🧵 pic.twitter.com/MVdaUy3IhA
What you'll learn 👉
Shrinking Supply Meets Relentless Demand
According to Orbion, companies are buying around 1,755 BTC every day, while only about 450 BTC are mined daily. That means new supply is being absorbed nearly four times over.
This creates a structural imbalance. Every time a sovereign wealth fund, a corporation, or a wealthy individual buys, they are pulling from the same shrinking pool of 2 million coins.
The question is not whether demand is coming, he says, but how long exchange reserves can keep absorbing it. Once those reserves dry up, there will be nothing left to slow the move higher.
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Why the BTC Price Hasn’t Exploded Yet
If demand is this strong, why isn’t Bitcoin already at $1 million? Orbion points to three main reasons:
- Early holders (“OGs”) cashing out profits
- Panic selling caused by macroeconomic shocks
- The remaining 2M coins on exchanges still providing liquidity
But those reserves are falling fast. He suggests that when they finally vanish, the move will not look like a rally. Instead, it will look like a reset.
Bitcoin vs Fiat: A Reset, Not a Rally
Orbion stresses that Bitcoin hitting $1M is not just Bitcoin “going up.” It’s also about fiat currencies going down. He compares it to the collapse of Germany’s mark in 1923, where trust in the currency broke suddenly, not gradually.
In his view, hyperbitcoinization means Bitcoin becomes the default settlement layer, unit of account, and store of value. Fiat money, including the U.S. dollar, could lose relevance in a single, sharp transition.
The Smart Money Is Already Positioning
Skeptics will always call each new price target impossible. In 2010 it was $1, in 2013 it was $1,000, in 2017 it was $20,000, and in 2021 it was $100,000. Every time, Bitcoin has broken through.
Orbion closes by saying that smart money is quietly accumulating while retail investors are shaken out. For him, the $1M Bitcoin moment won’t come when retail expects it. It will arrive when the last liquid coins disappear, and demand collides with extreme scarcity.
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