In a detailed analysis, the crypto analyst Blockchainedbb has cautioned investors and traders against buying Bitcoin (BTC) at the current price levels. The analyst has provided a comprehensive breakdown of the market conditions, highlighting the potential risks and suggesting an optimal entry point for BTC accumulation.
The Current Market Scenario:
According to Blockchainedbb, while Bitcoin has not experienced a significant decline, alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins) have already suffered losses of up to 60% from their recent peaks. This has led to widespread portfolio bleeding, leaving investors grappling with the decision to either average down or cut their losses.
The Significance of the $55,000 Support Level:
The analyst emphasizes that the $55,000 level is not a strong support for Bitcoin. The grey boxes on the chart represent “fair value gaps,” which do not necessarily need to be filled. If these gaps are disrespected, Bitcoin could potentially drop further.
When to Start Averaging:
Blockchainedbb suggests that for a bullish market structure shift, Bitcoin needs to rise above $68,000, at which point investors could consider entering with a target of $75,000. Any entry before that level would be akin to “catching a falling knife,” as the market direction could go either way.
The analyst warns that if the monthly fair value gap on the chart is disrespected, Bitcoin could drop to $42,000 before reaching $75,000. In such a scenario, holding altcoins becomes a significant risk, and some altcoins could potentially drop another 40-60%. Even if Bitcoin eventually reaches $75,000, investors may barely break even.
Potential Risks and Catalysts:
Blockchainedbb highlights that unless there is a resolution to the ongoing geopolitical conflicts or the situation is brought under control, the chances of further downside remain high. Additionally, as crypto markets operate on weekends while other markets are closed, any negative reactions in gold, oil, or the S&P 500 could drag Bitcoin lower.
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Show more +Despite the current challenges, the analyst does not foresee a full-blown bear market from this point on. As this is an election year, the analyst expects the government to take measures to boost the economy, such as quantitative easing or interest rate cuts, which could potentially lead to a market rebound starting in June.
Optimal Entry Point:
Blockchainedbb advises against averaging down until Bitcoin demonstrates a bullish market structure shift, which could be signaled by a daily close above $68,000. Investors should consider their financial situations and the potential wait time required to break even and generate gains if Bitcoin loses the $53,000 support level.
The analyst’s analysis provides a comprehensive overview of the current market conditions and potential risks associated with buying Bitcoin at current levels. By highlighting the optimal entry point and potential catalysts for a market rebound, Blockchainedbb aims to equip investors and traders with the necessary insights to make informed decisions regarding their Bitcoin and altcoin holdings.
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