Hedera enters January in a tricky spot. The HBAR price is sitting around $0.11 after losing roughly 20% in December, even as network activity and enterprise headlines continue to stack up. Price and fundamentals are moving in opposite directions, which makes short-term forecasting less about narratives and more about timing.
Below is how the main forces affecting the HBAR price in January line up, and where that leaves potential upside and downside.
What you'll learn 👉
Enterprise Adoption Is Real, but Slow
Hedera continues to strengthen its position as an enterprise-focused network. Recent developments include government partnerships around tokenized land registries, most notably Georgia following Dubai’s earlier move. These are not pilot experiments for marketing purposes. Governments do not change core infrastructure lightly, and this supports the long-term Hedera thesis.
That said, these implementations operate on long timelines. Real adoption often takes 6 to 18 months before it translates into measurable network demand or sustained token usage. In January, these deals act more as background support than immediate price drivers.
Another wildcard is the pending SEC decision on Canary Capital’s HBAR ETF, expected in 2026. While not a January catalyst, the market is already positioning around that possibility. Analysts have modeled a wide outcome range, from a potential move toward $0.16 on approval to a drop toward $0.08 if sentiment deteriorates around rejection risk.
For January specifically, this creates a mixed backdrop: strong positioning, but no instant payoff.
Network Activity Is Rising While Price Lags
One of the more constructive signals for HBAR comes from on-chain data. Hedera’s mainnet recently reached 100 transactions per second, a 156% quarter-over-quarter increase. Testnet activity is also rising as developers prepare new applications. Total value locked has edged higher to around $67.1 million despite the price pullback.
This kind of divergence (improving fundamentals with falling price) often appears near local bottoms rather than tops. It suggests usage growth is happening quietly while traders remain cautious.
At the same time, derivatives data shows that skepticism is still present. Funding rates remain slightly negative, meaning short positions outweigh longs. Traders are not yet betting aggressively on a rebound, even as the holder base continues to grow and new account creation jumps.
This setup does not guarantee a rally, but it does reduce the odds of sharp downside unless broader market conditions worsen.
Macro Conditions Still Favor Bitcoin Over Alts
The biggest headwind for HBAR in January has little to do with Hedera itself. The wider market remains firmly in “Bitcoin season.” The Altcoin Season Index is deeply depressed, and open interest across crypto derivatives has fallen, signaling reduced appetite for higher-risk altcoins.
HBAR also remains closely correlated to Bitcoin. If BTC continues to consolidate or correct, the HBAR price is unlikely to break out independently, regardless of its internal metrics. Until market structure shifts back toward altcoins, rallies may struggle to sustain momentum.
ChatGPT’s HBAR Price Scenarios for January
Based on the factors above (enterprise positioning, improving network activity, cautious derivatives data, and weak altcoin conditions) ChatGPT gave two realistic paths for HBAR in January.
In a bullish scenario, Bitcoin stabilizes or grinds higher, allowing altcoins to recover modestly. With fundamentals improving and selling pressure easing, HBAR could reclaim the $0.13 to $0.15 range. This move would likely be gradual rather than explosive, driven by spot demand rather than leverage.
In a bearish scenario, macro pressure persists and Bitcoin weakens further. If risk appetite fades, HBAR could retest support near $0.09, with a deeper flush toward $0.08 possible if sentiment deteriorates quickly. This would likely occur without major negative news, driven purely by market structure.
Hedera’s fundamentals are strengthening, but January is unlikely to be the month where that fully reflects in price. For now, HBAR sits in a zone where downside risk still exists, but long-term positioning continues to improve quietly.
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