Avalanche price has remained well below its all-time highs, but some analysts believe a major recovery may be on the horizon.
In a video breakdown, Gerhard from the Bitcoin Strategy YouTube channel explored whether the AVAX price has what it takes to reach $100 again during this market cycle. His analysis combines fundamentals, technicals, and network data to build a comprehensive case.
What you'll learn 👉
Avalanche: A Scalable Blockchain With Developer Focus
Avalanche is a layer-one blockchain built for speed and scalability. It uses a unique consensus mechanism, known as the Avalanche consensus, which supports fast finality and high throughput. The network claims to process more than 4,500 transactions per second.
A standout feature of Avalanche is its subnet architecture. Subnets are independent blockchains that exist within the Avalanche ecosystem but operate with their own rules. This makes the platform attractive to developers looking for custom blockchain solutions. Because of this, Avalanche is often viewed as one of the most flexible and developer-friendly platforms in the crypto space.
The AVAX token powers the network. It is used for transaction fees, staking, and other functions within the Avalanche ecosystem. The token’s maximum supply is capped at 720 million, and around 377 million tokens are currently in circulation. One notable aspect of the tokenomics is Avalanche’s fee-burning mechanism, which permanently removes a portion of fees paid in AVAX from circulation. Over time, this deflationary feature could support the token’s long-term value.
On-Chain Metrics and Ecosystem Growth
Avalanche has experienced a mixed trend in terms of usage and adoption. Gerhard pointed out that daily active addresses are currently around 40,000, significantly lower than the 100,000+ figure seen during the previous bull run. Despite the dip, this number still compares favorably to many other chains in the current market conditions.
Avalanche’s total value locked (TVL) sits at approximately $700 million, far below its peak of over $11 billion during the DeFi boom. However, this decline is not unique to Avalanche, as most chains have seen their TVL drop over the past year. Key DeFi protocols on the Avalanche network include Trader Joe, Benqi, and GMX, though GMX has since expanded to Arbitrum as well.
The Avalanche ecosystem has also grown through strategic partnerships. One of the most important is its collaboration with Amazon Web Services (AWS), which supports Avalanche infrastructure and helps developers deploy subnets more easily.
Another development is the launch of AvaCloud, a platform that enables enterprises and institutions to create their own Avalanche-based blockchains. These tools strengthen Avalanche’s appeal beyond retail crypto users, targeting the business and enterprise market.
From a technical perspective, the AVAX price is trading around $35, still far from its previous high of $146. Gerhard noted that the token has been forming higher lows and recently broke above the 200-day moving average, both of which are considered bullish signals.
If AVAX can break through the $40 resistance level, the next likely target could be around $60. However, a move toward $100 would likely require renewed momentum across the broader crypto market, particularly in Bitcoin and Ethereum.
What Needs to Happen for AVAX to Hit $100?
In Gerhard’s view, the AVAX price could return to $100, but several conditions must be met. First, the entire crypto market would need to regain investor attention, including renewed retail and institutional interest. Avalanche is not isolated; its performance is closely tied to the overall health of the market.
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Second, Avalanche must continue delivering on its technology roadmap, especially when it comes to expanding developer participation and enterprise subnet adoption. Strong execution on these fronts would strengthen the network and its value proposition.
Lastly, the macroeconomic backdrop must be favorable. A return to lower interest rates, a weakening U.S. dollar, and renewed appetite for risk assets would all contribute to a more bullish environment for AVAX and other altcoins.
If these factors align, Gerhard argues that a $100 AVAX price is a realistic possibility in the coming cycle.
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