Bitcoin has been hit with almost everything bears could ask for, yet BTC is still trading around $76,000-$78,000.
The $6.3 billion Binance hack has damaged confidence in the world’s largest crypto exchange, billions of dollars have left the platform, the Federal Reserve remains cautious on inflation, and risk assets are under pressure. Binance itself reported that withdrawals following the attack amounted to roughly 3% of customer assets.
Bull Theory believes Bitcoin’s ability to absorb all of that bad news could be telling investors something important.
Its argument is that BTC may be behaving more like an asset under accumulation than one entering a fresh capitulation phase.
What you'll learn 👉
Bitcoin’s 2026 Setup Looks Surprisingly Similar to 2023
Bull Theory compares the current structure with early 2023.
At the time, crypto was dealing with the aftermath of FTX, the U.S. banking crisis, Silvergate’s shutdown, aggressive Federal Reserve tightening and regulatory actions against major exchanges.
Yet Bitcoin refused to revisit its late-2022 low.
Bitcoin should be crashing much harder right now. The world’s largest crypto exchange just suffered a $6.3 BILLION hack, the Fed is turning more hawkish, and political uncertainty is rising in the U.S. Yet BTC is still holding around $76,000–$78,000. Something very similar happened in 2023. Back then, almost everything bad was happening. • The U.S. banking crisis led to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. • Silvergate, one of crypto’s biggest banking partners, shut down. • The SEC sued Binance and Coinbase and went after several major crypto projects. • The Fed continued raising interest rates, putting pressure on risk assets. • Investors were still uncertain whether spot Bitcoin ETFs would ever be approved. Despite all this, Bitcoin never touched its 2022 cycle low near $15,500. Instead, BTC spent months trading between roughly $25,000 and $31,000, with buyers repeatedly defending support. Once Bitcoin broke out of that range, it rallied to $42,000 by December 2023 and eventually crossed $73,000 in March 2024. That’s almost a 3x rally from the $25,000 area in around nine months. Now compare that with 2026. • Binance has suffered a massive hack, with reported losses of around $6.3 BILLION. • The Fed has already raised rates once, with another hike being considered for December. • The U.S. midterm elections are creating uncertainty around future crypto legislation. • Democrats have opposed advancing major crypto legislation, including the CLARITY Act, raising concerns about further delays. • Global stocks are selling off, with AI and semiconductor companies taking some of the biggest hits. • Gold and silver have also suffered sharp corrections. Yet Bitcoin hasn’t crashed. What could be worse for crypto sentiment than a multibillion dollar hack at Binance? But even after all this, Bitcoin is not crashing. That’s not what you would normally expect from an extremely weak market. During distribution, even small pieces of bad news can trigger heavy selling because buyers are already exhausted. During accumulation, buyers keep absorbing selling pressure, allowing prices to hold support even when the news is terrible. And that’s what makes the current chart interesting. In 2023, Bitcoin spent months consolidating around its major weekly moving averages before eventually breaking higher. The 2026 chart shows some similarities, with BTC holding near its 50-week moving average around $75,000 while facing resistance near $89,000. The weekly RSI is also back above 50. None of this guarantees that Bitcoin has entered an accumulation phase. But the way BTC is holding up after everything that has happened suggests buyers are still defending important levels.
— Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio) November 3, 2026
Instead, BTC spent months building a range around $25,000-$31,000 before eventually breaking higher. By December 2023 it had reached roughly $42,000, followed by a move above $73,000 in March 2024.
The analyst sees a similar dynamic developing now: plenty of reasons to sell, but buyers continue appearing around an important long-term support area.
The Weekly Bitcoin Chart Shows Why $75K Matters
The chart makes the comparison easier to understand.
Bitcoin’s 50-week moving average currently sits near $75,550, almost exactly where BTC has been finding support.
Above price, the 100-week moving average near $89,100 forms the next substantial barrier.
That leaves BTC trapped between roughly $75,000 support and $89,000 resistance.
The 200-week average is much lower, near $67,800, giving bulls another important long-term level if $75,000 eventually fails.
The chart also compares this structure with 2023, when BTC consolidated between its major weekly averages before eventually breaking above the 100-week line.
Weekly RSI is around 50.6 now, placing momentum back around neutral rather than deep in bearish territory.
That is constructive, but it is not yet confirmation of a breakout.
Read also: Bitcoin Price Could Be About to Trap the Bulls With This Move!
Why Bitcoin Not Crashing Matters
Bull Theory’s most interesting point is not that bad news automatically makes Bitcoin bullish.
It is how price responds to bad news.
The Binance theft was enormous. Reuters reported that hackers stole approximately $6.3 billion, potentially making it the largest crypto theft ever. Binance has since raised funds to replace most of the stolen assets and says its financial position remains strong.
Meanwhile, the Fed held rates at 3.75%-4.00% on October 28, with policymakers still concerned about inflation and markets considering the possibility of another increase later this year.
And yet BTC has not produced the type of cascading decline that might be expected if buyers had completely disappeared.
That does not prove accumulation.
It does indicate that selling pressure is currently being absorbed around $75,000-$78,000.
What Would Confirm the 2023 Bitcoin Comparison?
The chart gives traders fairly clear levels to test the thesis.
Holding the 50-week average near $75,500 keeps Bull Theory’s accumulation argument alive.
A break back toward $89,000, followed by a successful move above the 100-week average, would make the comparison with 2023 considerably more convincing.
The opposite scenario is equally important.
If $75,000 fails decisively, the 200-week average around $67,800 becomes a logical area to watch. A move below that level would make the current structure look much less like the 2023 accumulation period.
For now, Bitcoin has not broken out.
But after a $6.3 billion exchange hack and a difficult macro backdrop, the fact that BTC is still defending one of its key weekly moving averages may itself be the signal Bull Theory thinks traders are overlooking.
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