Bitcoin’s (BTC) price movement has been notable, climbing above the $57K mark. According to Rekt Capital’s newsletter, the BTC’s performance has triggered discussions on whether September will be a consolidation month or set the stage for another rebound.
Rekt Capital also provides context on Bitcoin’s historical price behavior in the months leading up to and after its halving event.
What you'll learn 👉
Bitcoin Breaks Down From a Key Channel
Last week, Bitcoin confirmed a breakdown from its downtrending channel, according to Rekt Capital.
Despite this, BTC managed to close the week above a crucial support area, known as the orange zone. This zone has served as a price reversal area for BTC over the past several months, where buyers find opportunities, often pushing the price back upward.
Since July, Bitcoin has tested this zone multiple times after breaking down from the same channel. Historically, it has managed to recover within weeks, reclaiming lost support.
For this pattern to continue, Bitcoin would need to reclaim the $55,850 price level, which marked the bottom of the early July correction.
Is This Another Temporary Breakdown?
Rekt Capital suggests that if Bitcoin reclaims the $55,850 support level, it could climb back into the downtrend channel. A move like this would likely lead to renewed bullish momentum.
If September turns into a consolidation month, October could see more positive movement, as historical data from previous halving years shows.
Bitcoin has generally seen three consecutive months of upward price action in the months following a halving year. However, September tends to be a more muted period, often recording less than a 10% price decrease.
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Historical Trends and Future Expectations
Historically, September has been a time for consolidation in Bitcoin’s price, with single-digit percentage movements being the norm. However, in a few instances, such as in 2014 and 2019, the market saw larger declines of 19% and 13%, respectively.
These cases are exceptions, and typically, Bitcoin stabilizes before entering a stronger rally later in the year.
Per CoinGecko at press time, Bitcoin trades at $57,214.98, showing a 4.14% price increase in the last day. With a trading volume of over $34 billion, the market is poised for potential changes as traders look ahead to the end of September and the fourth quarter.
Outlook for October and Beyond
If Bitcoin follows its typical halving cycle behavior, October, November, and December could be months of growth. With past trends indicating a bullish run during these periods, many are watching to see if BTC will continue its upward trajectory. However, Rekt Capital remains cautious given the consolidation patterns seen in previous Septembers.
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