Bitcoin Outperforms Expectations: BTC Halving’s Bullish Trend Suggests Price Could Close at This Level for 2023
Bitcoin has taken the cryptocurrency world by storm once again, dramatically outperforming expectations in 2023. Popular cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen examined Bitcoin’s year-to-date return on investment (ROI) and compared it to previous years in a recent video, noting some interesting observations. Based on past trends, he also thinks the price could eventually close at 48k for 2023, which will also likely serve as the opening price for 2024.
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An Unexpected Comeback
Cowen admits he did not anticipate Bitcoin’s strong performance this year. “I’ve said many times throughout the year that I thought the yearly high would only be $35,000. I did not think we could go too much really above 35k. Clearly, I was wrong about that,” he stated.
His analysis focused on comparing 2023 to pre-halving years like 2015 and 2019. Historically, Cowen predicted that Bitcoin would hit a maximum price of $35,000 in 2023. However, the cryptocurrency has already far exceeded expectations, tracking more closely with post-halving years.
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Show more +Tracking Halving Year Trends
Upon closer examination, Cowen found that “This year, Bitcoin has been tracking prior halving year returns a lot more closely than it has tracked pre-halving year returns.” He compared 2023 performance against bear market years, post-halving years, and other halving cycle years.
Remarkably, Bitcoin’s ROI aligns most closely with the average of all prior halving years rather than just pre-halving years. As of his analysis, 2023 year-to-date ROI stood at approximately 2.6x. If this trend continues following historical halving year averages, Bitcoin could potentially hit 2.94x off its yearly open by the end of 2023. This equates to a price of around $48,000.
Based on Cowen’s analysis of historical halving year returns, there is potential for Bitcoin to hit $48,000 by the end of 2023. He notes that the current year-to-date ROI is around 2.6x off the yearly open price. When comparing to the average ROI of all prior halving years, the typical performance is 2.94x. Applying this historical average return for halving years implies Bitcoin could climb to 2.94x its 2023 opening price.
With the yearly open price at approximately $16,500, 2.94x would equate to roughly $48,000. Of course, relying solely on historical averages has proven unreliable for predicting Bitcoin’s actual trajectory. Nevertheless, closing 2023 near $48k aligns with halving year trends and would mark a tremendous comeback for the cryptocurrency. Cowen remains intrigued yet skeptical if this growth pattern will sustain through 2024
Shifting Cycles and Future Outlook
Evidently, Bitcoin has exhibited some drastic shifts from established four-year cycle patterns. Cowen reflected on his initial predictions missing the mark and the unexpected resurgence of the cryptocurrency this year. He wonders if the nature of the cycles themselves are changing.
The analyst closed his video expressing fascination with Bitcoin’s performance and curiosity around whether 2024 will follow pre-halving or post-halving year trends. Ifhalving year averages remain intact, 2024 could be another stellar year for the pioneering cryptocurrency. However, as 2023 has shown, investors should expect the unexpected when it comes to Bitcoin’s volatile but lucrative market.
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