The long-awaited approval of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the US could actually catalyze a correction in crypto prices rather than an immediate rally, according to analysis by Cryptonary.
As the SEC corresponds more actively with ETF applicants, optimism mounts that key regulatory obstacles may soon be cleared, perhaps as early as January 2023. However, Cryptonary cautions that capital won’t instantly flood crypto markets, even with approvals.
Operationalizing and launching Bitcoin ETFs remains a lengthy process, taking 4–8 weeks. But irrational exuberance could still ignite a temporary surge across digital assets when approvals hit the wire.
When the delayed reality of additional demand sets in, a rebuttal selloff could ensue as speculators cash out, expecting a more linear reaction.
So Cryptonary suggests the regulatory green light sets up a meaningful correction in Q1 2024 rather than sparking the oft-predicted surge towards $100k Bitcoin. Establishing a bull trend may take until April or beyond, absent other risk catalysts.
In the meantime, crypto markets are likely to grind higher in anticipation of eventual ETF launches. But secured approval could perversely deflate excessive optimism built on false assumptions of instant impacts.
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Once again, traders must play a disciplined defense against impulse and assumption, balancing patience with preparation.
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