Bitcoin price has reached a point where calm and confidence may be masking deeper short-term risks. A commentary from Altcoin Daily discusses a growing sense that the market could be entering a cooling phase before any meaningful continuation higher. The discussion does not dismiss long-term optimism, yet it places heavy emphasis on what could go wrong in the months ahead.
The video analysis from Altcoin Daily frames the current phase as one of complacency. Bitcoin price has shown resilience, yet similar moments in past cycles have often preceded sharp corrections rather than smooth rallies.
What you'll learn 👉
Bitcoin Technical Structure Shows A Familiar Warning Pattern
A key technical insight shared in the Altcoin Daily breakdown comes from analyst Crypto Face. His observation focuses on a recurring RSI pattern that has appeared during previous bull market advances. Each cycle shows a W shaped dip below the 60 level before a deeper pullback unfolds.
Bitcoin price has followed that script before, where brief upside moves create optimism, only for momentum to fade suddenly. This pattern does not guarantee a drop, yet Altcoin Daily stresses that it increases the probability of a shakeout rather than a clean breakout.
Bitcoin Price Faces Three Major Short-Term Bearish Triggers
Altcoin Daily identifies three specific risks that could weigh heavily on BTC price in early 2026. The first centers on uncertainty surrounding the Clarity Act, which was expected to move forward but now appears delayed. Regulatory ambiguity has historically pressured Bitcoin during sensitive macro periods.
The second risk involves Federal Reserve policy under Jerome Powell. Tight financial conditions or unexpected policy shifts could reduce liquidity, which often impacts Bitcoin price during corrective phases.
The third risk is political, with a potential US government shutdown adding another layer of uncertainty. Altcoin Daily notes that the combination of these three factors occurring together could amplify downside pressure.
Bitcoin Could Retest Deep Support Levels If Risks Align
Altcoin Daily outlines a scenario where Bitcoin price could revisit the November 2025 lows or even push lower. A potential move toward $75,000 is discussed as a full cycle correction area, representing roughly a 40% pullback from recent highs. That level also aligns with historical resistance zones where buyers previously stepped in.
Short term price action could still include a push toward the $100,000 to $105,000 range before weakness emerges. This type of structure has appeared in prior cycles, where late upside moves preceded sharper declines.
Conflicting Signals From Regulation And Institutional Developments
The regulatory debate adds further complexity. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has publicly distanced himself from the Clarity Act in its current form, arguing it fails to support fair competition. At the same time, Mike Novogratz believes a workable version of the bill could still pass soon.
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Meanwhile, Brad Garlinghouse has taken a different stance, emphasizing that regulatory clarity remains better than prolonged uncertainty. These mixed signals reflect a market still searching for direction.
Despite short term risks, Altcoin Daily maintains a constructive long term outlook, pointing to growing global adoption and institutional interest from firms like Goldman Sachs. Bitcoin may face turbulence ahead, yet the broader story remains unfinished. Watching how these bearish triggers develop could prove crucial as the next phase unfolds.
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