Bitcoin (BTC) Long-Term Indicator Points to One Final Leg Up – This Expert Says the Cycle Isn’t Over Yet
Is Bitcoin’s bull run really ending, or are we about to see one last explosive leg higher? According to well-known analyst Egrag Crypto, the charts tell a very different story from the bears.
In a post titled “Are You Saying the Cycle Has Ended?”, Egrag pushed back on the idea that Bitcoin price has already peaked, using a long-term RSI (Relative Strength Index) model to argue that the top isn’t in yet.
What you'll learn 👉
RSI Suggests the Cycle Still Has Room to Run
Egrag’s chart tracks Bitcoin’s RSI across multiple cycles going back to 2011. The model highlights a recurring pattern: every time RSI rises toward the upper red band (around 89), Bitcoin reaches its bull market peak. Conversely, every dip to the lower white band (around 38) has marked the end of a bear market.
Right now, Bitcoin’s RSI sits near 67, well below the “end-of-cycle” zone. That, according to Egrag, means there’s still plenty of upside left before this bull market runs out of steam.
He wrote:
“So, you’re saying the RSI is around 67? Based on historical patterns… and you’re saying we are heading into a bear market? 📉”
His response?
“UP, UP, UP, this is my stance.”
In other words, Egrag believes Bitcoin price still has another strong move toward the upper trendline, potentially completing its final parabolic rally before any major correction begins.
Historical Cycles Point to the 89 RSI Zone as the Top
In previous cycles, Bitcoin’s RSI hit 89 in 2013, 2017, and again in 2021, each time coinciding with a cycle top. Egrag suggests that once RSI climbs back into that same range, the bull run could finally conclude.
Until then, the structure remains bullish. The RSI hasn’t yet reached the overextended zone that typically signals exhaustion. If the pattern repeats, Bitcoin price could have 90 more days of upside momentum before a potential macro top.
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Final Thoughts
Egrag’s long-term RSI model has become a favorite among traders who look beyond daily volatility. And while short-term pullbacks are possible, especially after the recent $19 billion liquidation event, the overall chart still supports a continuation of the current cycle.
So, is the bull run over? According to Egrag, not even close. He’s betting that the next 90 days could take Bitcoin’s RSI back to the top of the channel, and with it, one final euphoric rally before the market cools off.
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