Bitcoin (BTC) and Crypto Prices Continue to Dip Despite Positive Economic Indicators: Here’s Why
The cryptocurrency market has been experiencing a prolonged bearish trend, with major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and Litecoin continuing to drop in value. This negative sentiment persists despite several positive economic indicators that would typically favor risky assets. Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe offers insights into the factors contributing to this puzzling market behavior.
Earlier this week saw the release of several important macroeconomic data points that paint a complex picture of the current economic landscape.
Consumer Price Index (CPI) Data
Wednesday’s CPI data came in lower than expected, which is generally favorable for risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies. The regular CPI was reported at 3.3% (vs. 3.4% expected), while Core CPI Regular came in at 3.4% (vs. 3.5% expected). Monthly data was also positive, with figures coming in below expectations.
Producer Price Index (PPI) Data
Thursday’s PPI data, which reflects inflation from the producer’s perspective, also showed positive signs. The regular PPI came in at 2.2% (vs. 2.5% expected), while Core PPI Y/Y was 2.3% (vs. 2.4% expected). Monthly data was particularly encouraging, with negative or zero growth reported against positive expectations.
Consumer Sentiment
Friday’s consumer sentiment data came in lower than expected at 65.6 (vs. 72.1 expected). While this indicates economic weakness, it paradoxically can be seen as a positive signal for risk-on assets, as it may increase the likelihood of interest rate cuts.
FOMC and Jerome Powell’s Hawkish Stance
Despite the encouraging inflation data, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered an unexpectedly hawkish speech on Wednesday evening. Powell maintained a strict stance on monetary policy and revised downward the number of potential rate cuts for 2024. This hawkish tone contrasts with the market’s increasing expectation of necessary rate cuts, especially in light of growing U.S. government debt and signs of potential recession.
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Market Contradictions
The cryptocurrency market’s behavior seems to contradict other positive market indicators:
- Treasury Bond Yields have dropped significantly, with the 2-year yield reaching its lowest point in two months (4.694%) and the 10-year yield falling to 4.211%, its lowest since early April.
- The U.S. Dollar has strengthened, reaching 105.75 points, largely due to the European Central Bank’s recent rate cut decision.
- Gold has continued to show upward momentum, diverging from Bitcoin’s performance.
Ethereum ETF Uncertainty
The lack of a decision on the listing of an Ethereum ETF continues to contribute to market uncertainty. Van de Poppe suggests that this situation may be setting up a “Sell the Rumor, Buy the News” scenario for the entire crypto market.
Despite the current downward trend, van de Poppe sees potential for a market turnaround in the near future. He anticipates one more week of downward pressure before an upward movement begins. The analyst points to the inevitability of rate cuts on the horizon, even as uncertainties surrounding their timing continue to influence market behavior.
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