Bitcoin Analyst Says Pre-Halving Rally Is Over, Expects ‘Blood In Altcoins’

February 5, 2024

Bitcoin Analyst Says '45,000 Has Been Broken To The Upside,' Shares The Next Target For BTC

The outlook for Bitcoin remains mired in uncertainty, according to the latest analysis from veteran crypto traders. On one hand, signs point to pre-halving rallies stalling out and yielding to more rangbound action. However, other traders see short-term volatility within the prevailing accumulation pattern that could still enable upside tests.

Pre-Halving Peak Likely In?

Trader Alejandro asserts that the pre-halving Bitcoin top often materializes months ahead of the actual event. This means fading rallies present distribution opportunities before the next leg down.

“Pre halving rally is over. #Bitcoin $28K – $30K is my maximum target. I will start scaling at 34K…I expect blood in altcoins -60% from here. I will rotate Bitcoin to altcoins after a new ATH. Probably in Q4.”

This thesis aligns with the typical Bitcoin market cycle of peaking ahead of the halving event before finding an ultimate durable low. From there, Alejandro’s eyes rotate holdings into likely oversold altcoins.

Rangebound Action Still Favors Upside Attempts

However, analyst CrypNuevo see s potential for short-term volatility to still enable temporary runs towards liquidity clusters above $40K:

“I think that we’ll eventually break down from this range. But… I think that there is possibly a visit to $45k at least first.”

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The tweet thread by trader CrypNuevo provides an insightful technical analysis of potential upcoming Bitcoin price action based on key levels and liquidation data.

The trader mentioned that Bitcoin remains range-bound between $40 and $45k in the high-timeframe weekly view. He also added that a clear directional bias is lacking.

Per the liquidation chart, there iis asignificant open interest vulnerability around $44.2k. This means a volatile spike towards that level could trigger cascading liquidations and drive further upward momentum.

However, in the short-term daily view, liquidations cluster lower between $41.8 and $41.3k. Taking out this liquidity could occur first before any upside attempts.

Given the unclear outlook, CrypNuevo will look for short-term day trading setups rather than broader directional swing trades. Intraday volatility provides opportunities.

On a multi-week perspective, CrypNuevo maintains conviction in an eventual breakdown from the range lows. But in the near term, a temporary move as high as $45k could unfold first before that deeper correction.

So in essence, the debate endures around likely Bitcoin price action into the April halving. Some traders position topping behavior as retail euphoria crests.

But existing ranges could spur traps in both directions. For now, defensible risk management appears prudent, while long-term upside prospects remain after capitulation phases complete over the next quarter.