As the crypto world eagerly awaits Bitcoin’s next halving event in 2024, one analyst believes that the landscape is changing, and the halving may no longer be the sole determinant of Bitcoin’s price trajectory. According to Crypto Nova, a prominent voice in the digital asset space, the arrival of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds) could play a pivotal role in reshaping market dynamics this cycle.
While acknowledging the historically significant impact of Bitcoin halvings on its price, Crypto Nova argues that previous cycles have been influenced by a confluence of factors, including market sentiment, adoption trends, and macroeconomic conditions. “The halving of Bitcoin reduced the amount of new supply that enters the market, so it certainly has an effect,” she notes, “but it’s not just the halvings creating this cycle.”
Crypto Nova points out that price trends have varied widely across different cycles, with Bitcoin prices remaining relatively flat 60 days prior to the first halving in 2012, while appreciating 45% and 73% respectively in the same period before the second and third halvings in 2016 and 2020.
Beyond the halving itself, analysts have attributed previous Bitcoin bull runs to events like the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing program (QE3) intersecting with the U.S. debt ceiling crisis in 2012-2013, Brexit stoking fiscal concerns in Europe in 2016-2017, and the unprecedented stimulus measures during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020-2021.
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Show more +For the upcoming 2024 cycle, Crypto Nova believes the game-changer could be the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, which are establishing a new anchor for Bitcoin demand. “In previous cycles, liquidity has represented the main setback to upward price momentum,” she explains. “Key market participants, including bitcoin miners, would drive sell-offs in their attempt to exit long positions.”
However, the ETF inflows promise to absorb much of that supply in a gradual, sustained manner. With ETFs now representing around $4-5 billion in average daily Bitcoin spot volume, this stable demand profile could be positive for Bitcoin’s price over the long run by creating a more balanced market.
While dismissing the idea of a $1 million Bitcoin as “moonboy talking,” Crypto Nova suggests that $100,000 per Bitcoin this cycle is certainly not an unthinkable feat anymore, given the potential impact of ETF inflows and the halving’s supply crunch. She also notes the significant global media coverage and effect on altcoins that such a price level could bring.
Ultimately, Crypto Nova believes that the current landscape, shaped by the introduction of U.S. Bitcoin ETFs, could sustain the bull run for longer than previous cycles. “It’s not just about the halving anymore, and that’s a good thing,” she concludes. “The current different landscape can sustain this run, and maybe even longer than before.”
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