XRP price is struggling around $1.29 today, but veteran financial trader Matthew Dixon believes the broader correction may be approaching its final stage.
His preferred interpretation is that XRP has been moving through an ABC corrective structure after the strong advance visible on the left side of his four-hour chart.
Under that scenario, XRP may still need one more drop toward roughly $1.21 before the correction is complete.
The setup is bullish in Dixon’s view, but price has not confirmed it yet.
What you'll learn 👉
Why Dixon Is Watching $1.21
The XRP chart begins with a strong move that took XRP to approximately $1.66.
Since then, price has been gradually working lower.
Dixon labels the move as an ABC correction, with XRP potentially approaching the end of wave C.
The most important downside reference is around $1.21, which also lines up with the previous major low marked on the chart.
That does not mean XRP has to touch $1.21 exactly.
His point is that another sweep toward that region could finish the corrective structure before buyers regain control.
The Fibonacci map also shows $1.307 around the 78.6% retracement, with price currently trading slightly below that region near $1.29.
Above current price, the next larger levels are around $1.38-$1.40, followed by $1.47-$1.49 and $1.55.
Three RSI Divergences Have Already Given Signals
One of the more interesting parts of Dixon’s chart is the RSI.
He marks three separate divergences where momentum moved differently from price before a reversal followed.
The latest divergence developed during XRP’s October decline.
Price formed lower lows, but RSI began forming higher lows.
That can indicate bearish momentum is weakening even though the price trend still looks poor.
However, Dixon is not treating the divergence as sufficient confirmation by itself.
That is why the $1.39-$1.40 region is so important.
A break above that zone would show that price structure is finally following the improvement already visible in momentum.
Until then, XRP remains inside the correction.
Read also: XRP Supply Data Sends a Bullish Signal as Whales Keep Buying
XRP Is Still Weak Today
That caution fits what the XRP price is doing right now.
XRP is trading around $1.29 and has fallen roughly 2%-3% over the past 24 hours, underperforming the broader crypto market after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged.
Price recently attempted to recover toward the $1.33-$1.34 area but failed to hold the move.
That leaves the $1.25-$1.30 region exposed again.
The wider crypto environment is also not helping. The Fed remains cautious on inflation, and risk assets have remained under pressure following the latest FOMC meeting.
At the same time, XRP has several project-specific developments in the background.
Ripple’s Swell conference is running from October 27-29 in New York, with discussions around institutional crypto adoption, ETFs, payments, tokenization and XRP utility.
Ripple also announced this week that it is approaching a $900 million annualized product revenue run rate and now works with more than 1,700 institutions, corporates and enterprises across its products.
Those developments strengthen the broader Ripple ecosystem story, but so far they have not been enough to reverse XRP’s short-term price trend.
What Would Confirm Dixon’s Bullish XRP Scenario?
For me, Dixon’s setup has two clearly defined sides.
If XRP falls toward $1.21 and buyers respond quickly, that could fit his idea that the ABC correction is reaching completion.
But the real confirmation would come higher.
A break above $1.39-$1.40 would invalidate much of the immediate bearish structure and strengthen the case for a renewed impulsive move.
From there, the chart places the next notable Fibonacci levels near $1.47-$1.49 and $1.55.
So the bullish thesis is not based on XRP already being in a new uptrend.
It is based on the possibility that the current downtrend is close to finishing.
That is an important difference.
XRP may still have one uncomfortable move lower left before the setup becomes attractive.
For more crypto news and price predictions, click here.
Subscribe to our YouTube channel for daily crypto updates, market insights, and expert analysis.
