Silver’s continued weakness has forced analyst Fthegurus to abandon a forecast he had recently defended. His latest update explains why the recovery he expected never arrived and why his outlook has become much more cautious.
The change goes beyond a missed price target. Fthegurus has reconsidered what silver’s failure to recover could mean for the coming weeks and months. His revised silver price prediction now places greater importance on support levels, realistic expectations and evidence that buyers can regain control.
What you'll learn 👉
Fthegurus Initially Expected Silver Price To Reach $70
Fthegurus originally predicted that silver would reach $70 per ounce by November 15. Silver traded around $58 when he made that call, so the target required a gain of approximately 20.7%.
The metal moved in the opposite direction. Silver later traded just below $54, which left a larger gap between the market price and his target.
His first response remained optimistic because he believed the conditions for a relief rally were present. He described silver’s RSI as being at its most oversold level of the year and expected a rebound the following week.
His initial argument rested on several observations:
- Oversold Momentum: He believed silver’s unusually low RSI reading increased the possibility of a relief rally.
- Interest Rate Expectations: He argued that an expected rate increase was already priced into the market.
- Support Around $54: He viewed that level as a potential foundation for the recovery toward his target.
Those conditions gave him reasons to retain the forecast, although none guaranteed that silver would recover before the deadline. An oversold market can remain weak if buyers fail to return with enough demand.
Silver’s Failure To Rally Changed The Analyst’s Assessment
Fthegurus has now cancelled his $70 silver price prediction and accepted that the original call was wrong.
His latest explanation focuses on the recovery that never materialized. He described the Federal Reserve as having paused rate increases and adopted a more cautious stance. He expected that development to help silver produce at least a relief rally.
Silver’s failure to respond weakened his confidence in the bullish case.
Silver. My call for silver to hit $70/oz by mid-November is officially cancelled. I was wrong. No excuses, no talk of manipulation, no victimhood—just a bad prediction. The weakness in Silver has been striking. After the Fed paused rate hikes and shifted to a more cautious “wait and see” stance, I expected at least a relief rally. It didn’t materialize. That tells you something about the current underlying demand and sentiment. Does this mean silver is a bad investment? Absolutely not. It remains a core holding in a well-diversified portfolio for the long term. But if you’re looking for a quick trade or meaningful upside in the coming weeks or months, I don’t see it. Claiming $70 is right around the corner would be irresponsible. The key levels to watch are the supports at $50 and $45. Holding those would be constructive. A break below them would be psychologically damaging and open the door to a deeper correction. Low volatility is ahead. Patience is the only honest take right now.
— Fthegurus (@fthegurus) October 28, 2026
That distinction matters because a forecast depends on more than whether a supportive event occurs. The asset’s response helps determine whether the original reasoning still holds.
A more cautious interest rate outlook can help precious metals because they do not pay interest. However, silver also responds to industrial demand, currency movements and other market pressures. Rate expectations alone cannot guarantee higher prices.
Fthegurus interpreted the absent recovery as evidence of weak underlying demand and sentiment. That is his reading of the price action. The supplied commentary does not include separate demand figures or investor flow data to confirm the explanation.
Even so, the failed rally gave him a clear reason to reconsider his target. The market had not delivered the response his forecast required.
Revised Silver Price Prediction Rules Out A Quick Return To $70
The revised view is much more cautious about silver’s immediate prospects.
Fthegurus no longer expects a quick trade or substantial upside over the coming weeks or months. He also rejects the idea that $70 is immediately ahead.
His revised position contains several important changes:
- The Deadline Has Been Removed: The mid November target is cancelled, without a replacement date for silver to reach $70.
- Near Term Expectations Have Fallen: He does not currently see a convincing case for substantial upside over the coming weeks or months.
- Support Now Takes Priority: His attention has moved toward whether silver can defend $50 and $45.
- Patience Replaces An Immediate Rally Call: He expects lower volatility and wants stronger evidence before anticipating a recovery.
This is a broader reassessment than simply extending the original deadline. Fthegurus has reduced his expectations because the price behavior no longer supports his previous confidence.
His lower volatility forecast also remains uncertain. A break through major support could produce larger price moves than he currently anticipates.
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Silver Support At $50 And $45 Becomes Central To The Outlook
Fthegurus identifies $50 and $45 as the key support levels in his revised silver price outlook.
A successful defense of those areas would be constructive in his assessment. It would show that buyers can absorb some of the pressure after the recent weakness.
A break below those supports would carry a different message. He believes it could damage confidence and expose silver to a deeper correction.
These are conditional scenarios, so neither level guarantees a rebound. The strength and duration of any recovery would matter alongside the initial support reaction.
Fthegurus remains positive about silver’s role as a longer term portfolio asset. However, that personal assessment does not change his weaker near term forecast.
The distinction is useful: confidence in an asset over several years does not automatically justify an ambitious price target over several weeks.
Today’s Silver Price Outlook Also Points To Weak Momentum
Our separate silver price prediction for today, October 29, examines the immediate technical picture in more detail. The analysis identifies pressure near $52.70, with $51 as the next downside target if the breakdown holds.
Silver’s RSI of 33.828 remains above the usual oversold threshold of 30. Negative MACD and Bull/Bear Power readings also support the weaker momentum picture.
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The immediate scenarios remain straightforward:
- Bearish Scenario: Continued weakness below $52.70 could expose the next support around $51.
- Neutral Scenario: Recovery above $52.90 could restore the range up to $54.60.
- Bullish Scenario: A sustained break above $54.60 could open a recovery toward $56.60.
Those nearby levels provide context for Fthegurus’ broader reassessment. His revised view now depends on silver proving that it can stabilize before a stronger recovery becomes credible.
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