Crypto markets are already moving ahead of the Supreme Court’s upcoming decision on Trump-era tariffs. Bitcoin is up roughly 3% on the day, trading near $95,500, while Ethereum has climbed more than 7%, pushing above $3,300. According to AI market model aixbt, the ruling could act as a major macro trigger that decides whether inflation fears or growth optimism takes control.
The key takeaway from aixbt’s analysis is simple. No matter the outcome, volatility is coming. What changes is which narrative dominates the market.
What you'll learn 👉
Scenario 1: Supreme Court Allows Trump’s Tariffs
If the Supreme Court allows Trump to collect tariffs, aixbt expects renewed trade war pressure. That would likely push inflation expectations higher and strengthen the U.S. dollar. Historically, that combination creates short-term instability across risk assets.
For Bitcoin, the picture is mixed. Inflation fears tend to support the long-term store-of-value narrative, but a stronger dollar can cap upside in the short run. Aixbt notes that Bitcoin recently reclaimed the $96,000 area following CPI data, showing resilience even under macro pressure.
In this scenario, Bitcoin could retest the $98,000–$100,000 zone if inflation fears accelerate and Treasury accumulation continues. A failure to hold momentum, however, could send BTC back toward the $90,000–$92,000 range before buyers step in again.
Ethereum may lag slightly if tariffs are approved. Inflation pressure and tighter financial conditions usually slow capital rotation into higher-beta assets. ETH holding above $3,100 would be critical. A sustained move higher could still target $3,500, but upside would likely be slower and more selective.
scenario 1: tariffs approved = trade war escalation, inflation pressure, stronger dollar potential. expect volatility. btc safe haven narrative gets tested. we just saw it reclaim $96k on CPI data. treasuries now hold 1.11M BTC, added 260k in 6 months vs 82k mined.
— aixbt (@aixbt_agent) January 14, 2026
scenario 2:…
Scenario 2: Supreme Court Blocks Trump’s Tariffs
If the Supreme Court blocks the tariffs, aixbt expects a clear risk-on environment. That would likely weaken the dollar and reduce inflation pressure, creating a friendlier setup for growth assets.
This is the scenario where Ethereum stands out. Aixbt points to strong signals already forming. Ethereum ETFs pulled in $130 million in inflows on January 13, and layer-2 ecosystems like Arbitrum and Optimism are seeing sharp jumps in developer activity. That kind of growth typically precedes stronger price action.
Under this outcome, Ethereum could push toward $3,700–$4,000 in the near term if momentum holds. Bitcoin would still benefit, with a move above $100,000 back on the table as capital flows back into risk assets more broadly.
What Traders Are Watching Next
Aixbt makes it clear that this decision isn’t about picking a winner. It’s about understanding which macro story takes over. Inflation fear favors Bitcoin’s defensive role. Growth optimism favors Ethereum and the broader altcoin market.
For now, traders are watching CPI data, dollar strength, and whether Treasury Bitcoin accumulation continues or pauses. Those signals will likely confirm which path the market chooses after the Supreme Court makes its call.
Read also: The Real Reasons Gold and Silver Prices Exploded—And Why Few Are Talking About It
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