J.P. Morgan Asset Management has added Bitcoin to its Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions for the first time, giving BTC the highest expected compound return among the major asset classes shown in its 2027 projections.
The bank’s 31st annual report assigns Bitcoin an expected compound return of 10% and an arithmetic return of 20.9%, with annualized volatility of 55%.
That puts Bitcoin above U.S. large-cap stocks at 7.5%, U.S. small caps at 7.7%, gold at 5.5% and U.S. REITs at 8.2% on a compound-return basis.
J.P. Morgan’s forecasts cover a 10- to 15-year horizon and are intended for strategic asset allocation rather than short-term trading.
Bitcoin Enters JPMorgan’s Long-Term Framework
The inclusion itself is notable.
J.P. Morgan says this is the first year it has produced a long-term return forecast for Bitcoin. The firm described the move as part of its assessment of changing global capital flows and the growing role of new assets in portfolios.
Read also: Survey Shows 90% of US Bitcoin Holders Plan to Buy More
First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight at you, then they add you to their Long-Term Capital Markets Assumptions paper and predict you’ll be the best-performing asset of the next decade.
— Matt Hougan (@Matt_Hougan) October 20, 2026
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan reacted to the report by pointing to how far institutional attitudes toward Bitcoin have changed, joking that after years of being ignored and challenged, Bitcoin has now made it into J.P. Morgan’s long-term assumptions with the strongest projected return.
However, J.P. Morgan is not treating BTC like a conventional portfolio asset yet.
The firm explicitly notes that Bitcoin’s unstable correlations and high volatility remain obstacles to broader strategic allocation. BTC is therefore not included in J.P. Morgan’s main covariance matrices, with the firm instead providing a separate, smaller framework for analyzing it against selected assets.
So the report is not a claim that Bitcoin will definitely return 10% every year.
It is, however, a significant shift in how one of the world’s largest asset managers treats Bitcoin: no longer simply as an outside speculative asset, but as something worthy of a formal 10- to 15-year return assumption alongside stocks, bonds, gold and real estate.
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