Silver is worth around $59 per ounce, well below the levels that dominated the market conversation earlier this year.
Analyst Fthegurus is using that decline to revisit a call he made on February 17, when silver was near $90. At the time, he said the metal would not trade at $100 again in 2026 and pushed back against calls for $200 silver.
That part of his forecast has held so far.
From roughly $90 to $59, silver has fallen about 34%.
Now he is taking the opposite side of the debate again. Instead of warning about excessive upside expectations, he argues that calls for $40 or $30 silver are too pessimistic and says he does not expect the metal to trade below $50 again.
What you'll learn 👉
His February Silver Call Has Held So Far
In his February post, Fthegurus argued that silver investors were becoming too optimistic after the metal moved close to $90.
His thesis was based on silver’s history of spending long periods inside broad trading ranges after powerful advances.
He pointed to several previous periods:
- after the 1980 collapse, silver spent many years largely between $4 and $8
- after the 2011 peak near $49, price spent much of the following decade between roughly $14 and $30
- earlier historical periods also showed long stretches where silver remained inside relatively contained ranges
From that history, he concluded that expectations for $100 to $200 silver in the near term were too aggressive.
Silver will not trade at $100/oz again this year. That was the claim I made on February 17, when silver was near $90/oz. The comments were full of people telling me I needed to “educate myself” and that this time was different because “Industrial demand” and blah blah blah. Fast forward to today: silver is trading around $59/oz. Three months ago I also said silver will not trade below $50/oz again. Since then, on every Silver post I make self-appointed experts in the comments insisting it is heading to $40 or $30 and that I need to “educate myself” The lesson remains simple: on X, do the exact opposite of what the so-called experts tell you.
— Fthegurus (@fthegurus) October 14, 2026
It is important to be precise about the track record.
He did not predict the exact move from $90 to $59. His February claim was specifically that silver would not trade back above $100 during 2026.
As of now, that call remains intact.
Read also: Silver Price Prediction: This Long-Term Chart Could Be Sending a Bullish Signal
Silver Price Forecast: The New Call Is $50, Not $100
His current argument is very different.
Fthegurus says that roughly three months ago he also predicted silver would not trade below $50 again.
With silver now around $59, that leaves about $9 of downside before his thesis is tested.
From the current price, a decline to $50 would equal roughly 15.3%.
A move to $40 would represent about 32.2% downside, and $30 would mean a decline of roughly 49.2%.
Those numbers show how different the current bearish calls are from his own view.
| Silver price | Move from $59 |
|---|---|
| $50 | -15.3% |
| $40 | -32.2% |
| $30 | -49.2% |
| $100 | +69.5% |
His position is therefore relatively narrow: silver is no longer attractive enough for a $100 call this year, but he also believes the correction has already gone far enough to make $30-$40 predictions too bearish.
What Would Confirm or Invalidate His Silver Price Prediction?
Fthegurus has given the market a very clear level.
If silver stays above $50 through the next phase of the correction, his latest call remains intact.
A sustained move below $50 would invalidate it.
For buyers, the first recovery areas are around $60-$62, followed by the mid-$60s. A stronger move through those levels would reduce immediate pressure and support the idea that silver is forming a floor above $50.
The opposite scenario is straightforward.
If $55 fails and selling continues toward $50, his thesis faces its real test. Below $50, the discussion around $40 would become much more relevant.
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