Gold’s latest pullback has brought the price to a point where its next move could matter beyond the coming days. The attached chart places the metal close to a support line that has tracked its broader climb, and analyst Rashad Hajiyev believes next week could determine whether that structure survives.
His outlook favors a recovery from present levels. However, the gold price still needs to clear nearby resistance before that expectation becomes a stronger technical case. The chart now presents a straightforward test: whether the latest decline ends with another bounce or develops into a deeper correction.
What you'll learn 👉
Gold Price Tests The Rising Trendline Behind Its Broader Recovery
A look at the gold chart shows a rising trendline that extends from the earlier stages of the advance toward the current price area. The circled section marks where the latest pullback meets that line, close to the supplied gold price of $4,140.
The broader picture helps explain why this test matters. Gold climbed from much lower levels before reaching a peak near $5,600. A substantial correction followed, then a recovery toward $4,700 failed to carry the price back to its previous high.
That sequence leaves gold at an important junction. The longer rising structure remains visible, but the more recent recovery has already faced resistance. Another bounce would help preserve the broader trend, although it would not automatically end the correction.
Gold has been sitting on a 2-year major rising trendline for the past week. Next week is going to be a decider. My guess is that gold should hold and start a rally from present levels… pic.twitter.com/CgQbRke5Ag
— Rashad Hajiyev (@hajiyev_rashad) October 3, 2026
Hajiyev described gold as having spent the past week on a major rising trendline that stretches across 2 years. He expects the price to hold this area and begin another rally.
His view depends on support continuing to work. Repeated contact with a trendline can show that buyers are defending it, but contact alone does not confirm that a recovery has started.
Gold Price Needs To Clear $4,240 Before A Recovery Can Develop
The immediate resistance near $4,240 is the next test above the current price. Gold could hold its trendline and still struggle beneath this level, which would leave the recovery incomplete.
A move above $4,240 would provide an initial sign that the latest decline is losing strength. The stronger outcome would be a break followed by sustained trading above that level, rather than a brief move that quickly reverses.
The main upside checkpoints are:
- $4,240 is the immediate resistance: A sustained break would strengthen the case for a recovery from trendline support.
- $4,700 is the next supplied target: This area is close to the recent rebound peak visible on the chart.
- Above $5,600 is the broader extension: Gold would need to recover through the intervening resistance before a new higher high becomes realistic.
The distinction between these levels matters. Reaching $4,700 would recover part of the decline, but gold would still remain below its earlier peak. A move beyond $5,600 would carry greater structural importance because it would establish a fresh high.
That larger outcome could take weeks or months. The first requirement remains a convincing response around current support and a break above $4,240.
Gold Price Risks A Deeper Correction If Trendline Support Fails
The downside scenario begins with gold losing the rising trendline. A sustained break below it would weaken the idea that the broader advance is ready to resume from present levels.
The next supplied support is $3,950. This would become an important checkpoint in the coming days if the trendline fails. A recovery from that area could limit the damage, although gold would then need to reclaim the broken trendline to improve its position.
Further weakness below $3,950 would bring $3,400 into the discussion for the coming weeks. Such a decline would represent a much deeper setback and would undermine the rising structure behind Hajiyev’s bullish expectation.
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The downside sequence is:
- A trendline break weakens support: Gold would lose the line that currently underpins the recovery case.
- $3,950 becomes the next test: Holding this level could prevent the correction from extending further.
- Below $3,950 opens the deeper scenario: The supplied $3,400 level would become the next major downside reference.
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