Gold and silver have been hit hard in the past few days, but analyst Alasdair Macleod thinks the recent weakness may actually be bullish for both metals.
His argument centers on positioning in the futures market. Macleod says open interest on COMEX gold and silver contracts is currently low, which means there is less speculative exposure than usual. In his view, that creates room for fresh investor demand to return later, potentially pushing prices higher.
He also believes the timing of the sell-off is important.
Contract expiry, combined with China’s Golden Week holidays from October 1, can temporarily reduce liquidity and market participation. Macleod argues that this gives larger players more room to push prices lower, trigger long stops, and damage sentiment without facing as much buying pressure from Asia.
That makes the current decline look less like a collapse in the long-term story and more like a reset in positioning.
Open interest shows how many futures contracts remain active.
When open interest becomes very high, the market can become crowded and vulnerable to forced liquidations. Lower open interest means much of that excess positioning has already been cleared out.
Macleod believes gold and silver are now closer to that cleaner setup.
If investor and speculative demand returns while positioning is still relatively light, prices can move higher more easily because there are fewer crowded longs left to unwind.
The current markdowns in gold and silver are immensely bullish. I’ll explain.
— Alasdair Macleod (@MacleodFinance) September 29, 2026
Open interest on Comex in both contracts is low They will begin to normalise and that means bullion banks expect investor and speculator demand to return, which will lead to higher prices. This is what…
That is why he sees the current weakness as constructive rather than alarming.
China is one of the world’s most important markets for physical gold demand.
During Golden Week, trading activity from Chinese participants falls substantially. Macleod thinks that temporary absence creates an opportunity for prices to be pushed lower with less resistance.
If that is correct, the current markdown could be partly technical and liquidity-driven rather than a sign that demand for precious metals has disappeared.
Read also: This Analyst Just Made a Massive Gold Price Prediction
Macleod Expects Stronger Gold and Silver Into Year-End
His broader view is straightforward: the bullion market may be using the current weakness to clear leverage and reset sentiment before demand returns.
That does not mean gold and silver have to reverse immediately. Both markets can remain volatile, especially while bond yields stay elevated and the dollar remains firm.
But Macleod believes the positioning backdrop is improving underneath the surface.
If open interest begins to rebuild and investor demand returns after the current washout, the sell-off could end up looking more like preparation for a stronger year-end move than the start of a lasting bear phase.
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