Bitcoin is up 1.63% to $85,807.15 in 24 hours, keeping the BTC price firmly above $85,000 as Q3 draws to a close. The move comes after a major reset in the futures market, with BTCUSD speculative open interest falling about 90% from roughly 164,000 BTC on September 14 to 16,000 BTC on September 29.
Profit-taking has also picked up, with around 25,700 BTC sold for profit on September 22 as holders with average unrealized gains of 33% locked in returns.
Yet institutional demand has remained strong through spot Bitcoin ETFs. The bigger question now is whether softer US inflation can support BTC price, or whether high Treasury yields, a stronger dollar and further profit-taking limit the rally into the next quarter.
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Bitcoin Price Is on Track for Its Best Quarter Since 2024
The Kobeissi Letter reported that Bitcoin is up 43.1% in Q3 2026, putting the BTC price on track for its strongest quarterly performance since Q4 2024.
That would also make it the third-largest quarterly gain since US spot Bitcoin ETFs began trading in January 2024. Since August 19, Bitcoin has climbed 29.8%, following the US Treasury’s announcement that it would increase buybacks of longer-dated Treasuries.
BREAKING: Bitcoin is up +43.1% so far in Q3 2026, on track for its best quarterly performance since Q4 2024.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) September 29, 2026
This would also mark their 3rd-best quarterly gain since US spot Bitcoin ETFs officially began trading in January 2024.
Since August 19th alone, Bitcoin prices have… pic.twitter.com/lfZ3a8vHGp
ETF demand has been another major part of the move. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $2.4 billion in inflows during the week ending September 25, their largest weekly intake since October 2025.
Total year-to-date flows also moved from $5 billion in net outflows at the end of July to around $1 billion in net inflows. For the Bitcoin price, that creates an important contrast: traders have reduced leverage and taken profits, but spot demand has remained a source of buying pressure.
The BTC price is now consolidating near $84,000-$86,000 as traders wait for fresh US economic data. The next major releases include August core PCE inflation, personal income and outlays, the latest GDP reading and the September jobs report, all arriving before the next Federal Reserve meeting.
A softer inflation and jobs picture could push Treasury yields lower and improve risk appetite, whereas stronger data could keep yields elevated and weigh on Bitcoin.
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Bitcoin Price Outlook as Q3 Nears Its Strongest Finish Since 2024
Bitcoin enters the final stretch of Q3 with a 43.1% quarterly gain, putting the BTC price on track for its best quarter since Q4 2024. The move has been supported by $2.4 billion in weekly US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, a 29.8% rise since August 19 and a recovery in year-to-date ETF flows from $5 billion in net outflows at the end of July to about $1 billion in net inflows.
Also, the market has gone through a major leverage reset. BTCUSD speculative futures open interest fell about 90% from 164,000 BTC on September 14 to 16,000 BTC on September 29, and 25,700 BTC were sold for profit on September 22.
That leaves the BTC price facing less speculative leverage but still strong institutional spot demand as traders await the next batch of US economic data.
The immediate question is whether the Bitcoin price can hold $82,500-$83,000 and reclaim $85,000 as the quarter closes. If inflation and jobs data ease pressure on Treasury yields and ETF inflows remain positive, the BTC price could retain its Q3 strength; stronger economic data and higher yields could instead increase profit-taking.
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