Gold price has pushed through an important technical area after a powerful move this week, and the breakout has opened the door to several higher targets. However, the next move may depend heavily on whether buyers can defend the level that gold only recently managed to break.
The move came after gold climbed above the $4,430 area, which had previously acted as an important barrier. Gold has since traded around the $4,500 region, putting the market much closer to another resistance area that could determine whether the rally continues this week.
Technical analysts are now watching several nearby targets, and one Elliott Wave analysis points to a completed 5 wave advance from the June low. Another analysis places considerable importance on the $4,388 area, which could determine whether the broader bullish structure remains intact.
What you'll learn 👉
MCO Global Says Gold Price Has Completed a 5 Wave Advance From the June Low
MCO Global shared an Elliott Wave analysis of XAUUSD after gold reached the target zone from an earlier forecast.
The analyst explained that gold now has what appears to be a complete 5 wave advance from its June low. Such a structure matters because a completed impulse can confirm that the market has established a stronger upward move from its previous bottom.
MCO Global believes this development has reduced the probability of gold returning to make another larger low. However, the bullish structure still has levels that need to remain protected.
The analyst identified the $4,414 to $4,501 region as the important area for maintaining the current upside structure. Gold price could remain positioned for higher levels as long as that zone remains intact.
MCO Global identified 3 resistance levels above the current area:
- $4,587 represents the first resistance target.
- $4,609 represents the second resistance target.
- $4,638 represents the third resistance target.
Those levels give a clearer picture of what could happen if gold price continues above $4,500.
MCO Global also outlined the alternative scenario. A break below the short term support structure could produce a wave 2 pullback toward approximately $4,380.
That possibility becomes important because gold has already covered considerable ground from its June low. A temporary correction would therefore remain possible even if the larger structure continues to favour higher prices.
Itsadiee Fx Says $4,388 Remains Crucial for the Bullish Gold Price Structure
Itsadiee Fx also examined the latest gold price move and focused heavily on what happened after the market reversed from approximately $4,325.
The analyst had initially expected gold to move toward $4,300 before finding support. Gold instead reached its low around $4,325 earlier than expected and reversed strongly from that area.
Itsadiee Fx connected part of the upside move to the U.S. Treasury’s announcement of increased buybacks of longer term bonds. The analyst also noted that the strength of the move forced a reassessment of the earlier bearish outlook.
Gold subsequently moved above $4,500 before selling pressure appeared around $4,523. That reaction has made the $4,500 psychological level particularly important.
Large round numbers can become areas where both buyers and sellers concentrate their orders. Gold could therefore move back and forth around $4,500 before the next clearer direction develops.
Itsadiee Fx identified the $4,480 to $4,488 region as an area where buyers could return if gold pulls back. A successful reaction there could place $4,527 to $4,538 back within reach.
The larger level from the analysis remains $4,388.
XAUUSD .
— Itsadiee_Fx (@Itsadiee1) August 20, 2026
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Itsadiee Fx expects the broader bullish structure to remain valid as long as gold price stays above $4,388. A move beneath that price would weaken the current setup and make deeper downside levels more relevant again.
Gold Price Break Above $4,430 Opens the Door to $4,578
A look at the gold chart shows another important development behind the current setup. Gold price broke above the key $4,430 region yesterday, turning an important resistance area into potential support.
That breakout puts the next major resistance close to $4,578.
The level also lines up closely with MCO Global’s first resistance target at $4,587. Two separate technical observations therefore place an important barrier within the same general price region.
Gold holding above $4,430 would keep that breakout intact and give buyers room to test the $4,578 to $4,587 region.
A break above that area would become particularly important because there is another higher target that could enter the picture before the week ends.
Read Also: XRP Price Finally Makes the Move Bulls Have Been Waiting For!
Gold Price Could Reach $4,784 if the Next Major Resistance Breaks
Gold price moving decisively above approximately $4,578 could open a path toward $4,784 before the end of the week.
Such a move would require buyers to first clear the resistance immediately above the current market. MCO Global’s $4,587, $4,609 and $4,638 levels could each become obstacles before gold reaches the larger $4,784 target.
The possible path can therefore be viewed as a sequence rather than one uninterrupted move.
Gold first needs to defend $4,430. The next challenge comes around $4,578 to $4,587. Further resistance appears near $4,609 and $4,638. Clearing those areas could then make $4,784 the next major target.
That sequence also explains why the $4,430 breakout matters so much. Losing that level would weaken the foundation behind the current bullish scenario.
Losing $4,430 Could Send Gold Price Back Below $4,330
The bullish gold price outlook still comes with a clear risk.
Gold needs to keep the recently broken $4,430 area as support. Failure to defend that level could push the market back toward its previous consolidation range.
A deeper decline could eventually take gold below $4,330 before the end of the week, especially if selling pressure increases after the failed breakout.
The $4,388 level identified by Itsadiee Fx also becomes relevant under that scenario. A decline through $4,430 followed by a loss of $4,388 would provide stronger evidence that the latest breakout has weakened.
Gold therefore enters the next stage of the week with clearly defined levels on both sides. The $4,430 area remains the key support behind the breakout, and $4,578 represents the next major resistance.
A successful break above that resistance could put $4,784 within reach. Failure to protect $4,430 could instead send gold back toward consolidation and potentially below $4,330.
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