Kevin C. Smith, the Founder, CEO, and CIO of Crescat Capital, has made an interesting forecast for gold. His price target for gold sits at $20,000 per troy ounce, and he believes this level could be reached within approximately four years.
Smith bases his prediction on two independent macro models that point to the same conclusion. The first model looks into the relationship between global M2 money supply and the above-ground gold stock. The second uses a gold-to-S&P 500 ratio analysis that assumes a 50% stock market decline. Both models independently point to the same $20,000 price target.
The timing of this move could be even shorter than four years. Smith notes that the current geopolitical climate and fiscal imbalances create conditions that could ramp up gold’s ascent.
What you'll learn 👉
Model 1: Gold vs. Global M2 Money Supply – The Long-Term Trend Line
The first model Smith uses to justify his $20,000 gold price target examines the historical relationship between global M2 money supply and the total above-ground gold stock. This trend line has remained remarkably consistent over decades.
Central banks have been accumulating gold at a higher pace in recent years. This buying activity adds credibility to the model’s projections. When Smith extends the historical trend line forward, it points directly to a $20,000 price target in approximately four years.
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— Kevin C. Smith, CFA (@crescatkevin) July 22, 2026
My price target for gold is $20,000 per troy ounce based on two independent macro models. The first looks at the trend of global M2 money supply compared to the above-ground gold stock as shown in the chart below.
With the precious metal now under accumulation by global… pic.twitter.com/lU6dK5lOkL
He suspects global M2 could increase given the current fiscal imbalances and geopolitical climate. A faster expansion of money supply would shorten the timeline to reach his price target. The combination of central bank buying and monetary expansion creates a powerful tailwind for gold prices.
Model 2: Gold-to-S&P 500 Ratio – A 50% Stock Market Crash Could Accelerate the Move
Smith’s second approach relies on the gold-to-S&P 500 ratio model. This analysis assumes a run-of-the-mill US stock market decline of 50% coupled with an ensuing dollar devaluation.
Historical precedent supports this framework. Each prior peak in the gold-to-S&P 500 ratio was catalyzed by a stock market crash from historic large cap equity valuations and a substantial dollar devaluation. Current valuations sit near historic highs, and fiscal imbalances have reached record levels.
A 50% lower S&P 500 combined with a 5.25 gold-to-S&P 500 multiple would achieve the $20,000 price target. This multiple sits well below the 1980 peak of 7.58, though slightly above the 1933 peak of 4.76. Smith believes such a path could once again lie ahead given current conditions.
The Timeline: 4 to 7 Years – But Geopolitics Could Shorten It
The timing of this gold move has major implications for investors. Smith’s first model shows a timeline of about four years to the $20,000 target. This path could be driven by fiscal and monetary pathways alone, independent of any stock market catalyst.
Historical patterns provide additional context. The time window from the peak of the stock market to the ensuing peak in the gold price was 4.3 years from September 1929 to January 1934. It took 7 years from January 1973 to January 1980.
The current geopolitical climate, however, could shorten this timeline. Smith believes game theory leads him to the conclusion that the $20,000 target could be achieved in a step function at any moment. This possibility drives his urgency to help get investors positioned now.
A market top may have already happened or could be forming very soon. Investors who wait for confirmation may miss a major portion of the move.
Read also: XRP Holders: The Clarity Act Is More Important Than the SEC Ruling – Here’s Why
The Opportunity: Miners Are Undervalued and Central Banks Are Accumulating
Smith’s conviction in undervalued precious and critical metals miners remains strong. The multiple pathways to get to $20,000 gold between now and the next seven years gives him confidence to stay focused on Crescat’s activist metals exploration and development strategy.
The recent pullback in the precious metals complex provides an opportunity. Crescat’s precious metals strategy has been beating the benchmarks since inception. The firm had 5 of the top 16 performing hedge funds in the world last year according to the Preqin database.
Pullbacks such as the one seen this year happen from time to time. Smith views these pullbacks as excellent opportunities for new investors to come in. The recent pullback in the precious metals markets and in Crescat’s funds provides that opportunity now.
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