Crude Oil Prices Continue Climbing as Global Tensions Keep Markets Nervous: Where Could Oil Go Next?

May 21, 2026

Is Crude Oil Price About To Repeat Its Most Explosive Pattern from History?

Crude oil prices have stayed elevated for weeks now, even after a brief pullback yesterday interrupted the rally. That decline looked more like a temporary pause than a complete reversal. Oil prices started climbing aggressively after May 10, when WTI crude rebounded from around $90 and quickly regained bullish momentum.

That recovery did not happen in isolation. Geopolitical tensions across the Middle East created serious concerns about global supply stability. Energy traders and commodity markets immediately focused on one major issue that still dominates the conversation today: the Strait of Hormuz.

Nearly 20% of the world’s seaborne crude oil passes through that narrow shipping route. Once maritime traffic became heavily restricted, oil markets reacted quickly. Shipping delays created fears of persistent shortages, especially because attacks on Middle Eastern energy infrastructure had already disrupted production across several facilities.

Another problem appeared almost immediately. Refinery operations slowed sharply in some regions. Diesel, petrol, and jet fuel reserves started tightening faster than crude supply could recover. That imbalance placed additional upward pressure on crude oil prices.

Recent market activity shows those concerns have not fully disappeared yet.

What you'll learn 👉

Middle East Supply Risks Continue Supporting Crude Oil Prices

Crude oil markets often react strongly whenever global supply routes become uncertain. Current conditions in the Middle East continue creating that pressure.

Temporary ceasefires have done little to restore confidence across shipping markets because transit through the Strait of Hormuz remains difficult. Insurance costs for cargo shipments have increased sharply. Shipping firms also continue rerouting vessels through longer and more expensive trade paths.

That situation keeps a geopolitical premium attached to oil prices.

Another factor deserves attention. Several oil-producing regions still face infrastructure disruptions after earlier military strikes reduced production capacity. Supply chains across energy markets usually need time to stabilize after events like these.

A tighter supply picture naturally supports higher crude oil prices, especially when global inventories are already under pressure.

Shafin Ali Hridoy Explains Why Oil Could Reach $110 Again

X analyst Shafin Ali Hridoy recently shared his outlook on WTI crude oil and explained why prices could continue climbing despite recent volatility.

Shafin Ali Hridoy pointed to ongoing Middle East tensions and supply bottlenecks near the Strait of Hormuz as major reasons behind the current oil rally. He explained that these risks continue adding a strong premium to crude oil markets.

What's driving WTI Crude Oil prices right now? Polymarket traders are heavily betting on where prices hit this May. Here is a quick breakdown of the market logic behind all three scenarios:

Why Oil could hit $110 (42% probability):

. Geopolitical Risk: Continued friction in the… pic.twitter.com/pLUJhaCiRb
— Shafin Ali Hridoy .ink (@shafinali51) May 20, 2026

His analysis referenced data from prediction platform Polymarket, where traders assigned a 42% probability to oil reaching $110 again.

That target depends heavily on geopolitical escalation. Any fresh conflict involving major oil-producing regions could tighten global supply conditions even further. Shipping disruptions would likely intensify under that scenario.

Shafin Ali Hridoy also explained why many market participants still expect oil to settle closer to $95. He noted that diplomatic progress between regional powers could reduce panic across commodity markets and slowly remove the current risk premium attached to crude oil.

Steady energy demand from Asian economies remains another important factor in his outlook. Stable industrial demand from countries like China and India continues supporting crude prices even during periods of economic uncertainty.

His bearish scenario focused on oversupply concerns. Shafin Ali Hridoy explained that rising production from the United States, Brazil, and Guyana could eventually create excess supply across global oil markets. Higher interest rates and slowing industrial activity could also reduce crude demand over time.

That combination may pull WTI crude closer to $90 again if economic conditions weaken further.

WTI Crude Oil Scenario	Probability Mentioned by Shafin Ali Hridoy	Expected Oil Price	Main Drivers Behind the Scenario	What It Could Mean for Markets
Bullish Oil Scenario	42% Probability	$110	Continued Middle East tensions, supply disruptions, Strait of Hormuz bottlenecks, and persistent geopolitical risk premium	Higher inflation pressure, rising transport costs, stronger energy stocks, and increased market volatility
Neutral Oil Scenario	61% Probability	Around $95	Diplomatic progress between major powers, easing geopolitical fears, and stable demand from Asian economies	Oil market stabilizes near key support levels. Global markets may become less volatile if tensions cool
Bearish Oil Scenario	34% Probability	Around $90	Rising non OPEC production from the US, Brazil, and Guyana combined with weaker global demand and high interest rates	Lower inflation pressure, softer commodity markets, and possible relief for stock markets sensitive to energy costs

SATEJ MENTORSHIP Warns About Resistance at $107

Another market view came from SATEJ MENTORSHIP, which recently shared a technical analysis update on WTI crude oil.

SATEJ MENTORSHIP explained that crude oil currently faces strong resistance between $100 and $107 after the recent rally. Their analysis noted that bearish pressure becomes more visible whenever WTI trades below the psychological $100 zone.

Profit-taking also appears to be increasing after crude oil climbed rapidly during the geopolitical panic.

🚨 WTI CRUDE OIL ANALYSIS & GLOBAL MARKET IMPACT 🌍📊

🛢️ WTI Crude facing rejection near major resistance zone around 100–107 levels after recent geopolitical volatility.

📉 TECHNICAL STRUCTURE:
• Bearish pressure visible below psychological 100 zone
• Profit booking emerging… pic.twitter.com/tVlXTYmWvh
— SATEJ MENTORSHIP (@Satejmentorship) May 21, 2026

Their technical outlook identified support levels near $96 and $85. Resistance levels remain near $100, $107, and potentially $113 if tensions intensify again.

SATEJ MENTORSHIP also connected crude oil movements to broader financial markets. Their analysis explained that falling oil prices could help equity markets like India’s Nifty and BankNifty stabilize because lower energy costs usually reduce inflation pressure.

Higher crude oil prices create the opposite effect. Expensive oil often increases transportation costs, industrial expenses, and inflation risks across global economies.

That relationship explains why crude oil continues influencing not only commodity markets but also stocks, currencies, and central bank expectations worldwide.

Crude oil has remained resilient despite short term pullbacks, and geopolitical uncertainty still dominates market direction. The next few weeks may reveal whether WTI crude breaks above major resistance levels again or slowly cools as supply concerns ease across global energy markets.

FAQs

Will Oil Reach $200 a Barrel?

It is unlikely but possible. Current prices sit near $105 due to the US-Iran war. Wood Mackenzie warns a prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure could trigger $200 oil, though major banks forecast an average closer to $100

Should I Buy Oil Now or Wait?

Buy parts now, wait for dips. Short-term geopolitical supply spikes protect against a Strait of Hormuz crisis. However, average bank forecasts near $100 suggest waiting if you want to avoid peak premiums.

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