Recent market action between Bitcoin and Gold has taken a sharp turn, and this time the move looks extreme even by crypto standards. The ratio of BTC against gold has dropped heavily over the past few months, and that shift is now drawing attention from analysts who track long-term cycle patterns.
The latest data shared by Michaël van de Poppe shows that Bitcoin’s performance relative to gold has seen its deepest correction on record. The BTC to gold ratio fell from 36 in September 2025 to 12 by February 2026. That marks a 66% decline, which places the current market phase in clear bear market territory.
Michaël van de Poppe explains that this kind of drawdown has only appeared a few times in Bitcoin’s history. Similar setups were seen after the Mt. Gox collapse in 2015, during the COVID crash in 2020, and after the FTX collapse in 2022. Each of those moments came close to major cycle bottoms rather than early-stage declines.
Another key detail strengthens the case. The sigma deviation of BTC versus gold has dropped to a level never seen before. This indicates a 2 standard deviation move to the downside, which rarely happens and often signals extreme undervaluation conditions.
Historical Data Shows Strong Bitcoin Price Recovery After Similar Signals
Looking back at past cycles gives more context to what this signal could mean. Michaël van de Poppe points to several historical periods where similar conditions appeared and tracks how Bitcoin performed afterward.
January 2015 delivered modest early gains but eventually led to a 400% increase over 24 months. December 2018 showed a slower start, yet it produced an 800% gain within two years. March 2020 stands out with one of the strongest recoveries, as Bitcoin climbed over 1,000% in 12 months after the crash. November 2022 followed a similar pattern with steady recovery and strong double-digit gains.
The recent correction of $BTC vs. Gold is the heaviest in the history of #Bitcoin.
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) April 14, 2026
Comparing this to historical events, the average return after 12 months was 350-450% from this point.
That means, from here an increase from $60,000 to $275,000.
In 3 months time, it's very… pic.twitter.com/0qdo1O8lfA
When these periods are averaged, the numbers become even more interesting. Bitcoin typically gained about 45% within 3 months, 120% after 6 months, and close to 370% after 12 months following these extreme corrections.
Short Term Bitcoin Price Outlook Points Toward Recovery Zone
Based on this pattern, Michaël van de Poppe suggests that Bitcoin could move toward $87,500 to $90,000 within the next 3 months if historical behavior holds. That projection aligns with early recovery phases seen in past cycles.
Longer-term projections become more aggressive when using the same framework. The data points to a potential move toward $115,000 to $125,000 later in the year, especially if macro liquidity conditions improve and risk assets regain strength.
Another factor worth noting is how Bitcoin has started to behave differently since recent global tensions increased. The asset has begun to outperform gold again in certain periods, which could signal a shift back toward its role as a high-performing store of value.
Read Also: SUI Price Could Begin a Massive Upside If It Breaks This Key Level
The broader crypto market also supports this idea. Altcoin markets show reduced activity and weaker price action, which often appears near the end of bearish cycles. That context adds weight to the argument that the current drop is closer to a bottom than a continuation of a prolonged decline.
Michaël van de Poppe continues to emphasize that these moments tend to appear when attention shifts away from markets due to global events. That distraction often leads to missed opportunities, especially when data signals extreme undervaluation.
Bitcoin has faced similar conditions multiple times over the past decade, and each time the recovery phase surprised those who expected further downside. The current setup now joins that short list of rare signals.
Subscribe to our YouTube channel for daily crypto updates, market insights, and expert analysis.
