SUI once traded at $5.35 in January 2025, and that moment came with bold expectations. The narrative pushed Sui as a serious competitor to Solana, and the market priced in that possibility quickly. Today, the picture looks very different. SUI now trades around $0.88, which places it roughly 83% below its peak and forces a difficult question about whether a return to that level is realistic.
That question becomes more pressing when the math behind recovery starts to unfold.
A move back to $5.35 from current levels would require a rally of about 507%. That type of recovery is not impossible in crypto, but the conditions required here are much heavier than they first appear.
At the current circulating supply, SUI would need a market cap above $19 billion just to revisit that previous peak. Our Crypto Talk explains that this number does not stay fixed. Supply continues to increase, and that pushes the required market cap higher over time.
Full dilution tells an even clearer story. If all tokens were already in circulation, SUI would need a fully diluted valuation near $53.5 billion to support that same price. That places it close to Solana’s level, which sits around $50 billion after years of ecosystem growth and market presence.
The comparison raises an important point. Sui would need to reach a similar scale without having built the same level of dominance.
$SUI hit $5.35 in January 2025.
— Our Crypto Talk (@ourcryptotalk) April 2, 2026
Everyone called it the Solana killer.
But it will probably NEVER get back to ATH
The tech is there but the TOKENOMICS are designed to work against the price.
Let me show you exactly why 👇
Today it trades around $0.88 which is an 83% drawdown.… pic.twitter.com/D95LVEQ3zM
Token Unlocks Continue To Add Pressure On SUI Price
Tokenomics play a central role in this discussion. Around 61% of SUI supply remains locked, and those tokens continue to enter circulation every month.
Our Crypto Talk notes that between 42 million and 53 million tokens unlock monthly. That translates to roughly $40 million to $50 million in new supply entering the market on a regular basis. A single unlock on April 1, 2026 released about 53.4 million SUI, which equals close to $47.5 million.
That steady flow of new tokens creates constant pressure. Price needs strong demand just to absorb incoming supply, not even to push higher. This dynamic becomes more demanding over time as circulating supply expands.
Current circulating supply sits near 3.9 billion tokens. By the end of 2026, that number could approach 4.5 billion. That change alone increases the required market cap for a return to all time high to around $24 billion. By 2028, supply could exceed 6 billion tokens, which pushes the requirement beyond $32 billion.
Read Also:
Sui Network Activity Decline Weakens Demand Side Of The Equation
Supply pressure becomes more concerning when demand shows signs of weakening. Sui’s on-chain activity has not kept pace with its earlier expectations.
Total value locked reached a peak near $2.57 billion in late 2025. That number dropped sharply to about $573 million by March 2026, which represents a decline of roughly 78%. The network has recovered slightly to around $600 million, yet the gap from peak levels remains wide.
Our Crypto Talk also points to other metrics that confirm this trend. Daily active addresses declined about 9.5% quarter over quarter during Q3 2025. Average daily transactions dropped around 4.7%. Network fees fell by 11.1%, and measured in SUI terms, the decline reached 22.3%.
These figures show a network that is losing activity at the same time more tokens are entering circulation. That combination makes sustained price recovery harder to achieve.
Read Also: In 3-6 Days, Bitcoin Enters Its Last Dip Before the Next Leg Higher – Watch This Level
Sui still has strong technology behind it, and the original vision has not disappeared. The challenge now comes from balancing supply growth with real demand. Price alone cannot move higher without that balance.
Our Crypto Talk presents a clear framework for understanding the situation. Rising supply continues to increase the market cap required for higher prices. At the same time, network activity has not expanded enough to absorb that pressure.
Subscribe to our YouTube channel for daily crypto updates, market insights, and expert analysis.
