Bitcoin has been sliding for weeks. When the BTC price starts selling off this hard, the focus shifts quickly: is this only a dip, or is a deeper leg down still ahead?
Top analyst Crypto Patel thinks the answer is already in the data. He shared a chart that shows a pattern most traders don’t want to look at right now.
In every major cycle, Bitcoin has seen a brutal drop of around 75% to 85% from its all-time high. And if that pattern repeats again, the next level could shock a lot of people.
Patel points out that this is not a new idea. It has happened in every cycle Bitcoin has gone through.
Bitcoin has done this before. In 2017, it topped near $19,666 and then dropped about 84%. In 2021, it peaked at $69,000 before falling roughly 78%.
This cycle, BTC reached around $126,000. If the same kind of drop happens again, the chart points to the $30,000 area as the next major level. That’s the number making people nervous.
The BTC Chart Highlights the Same Cycle Structure
The chart Patel shared lays out Bitcoin’s long-term trend channel and the deep pullbacks that follow each peak.
Each time the BTC price hits a cycle top, it doesn’t just dip 20% or 30%. It usually goes through a full reset, wiping out leverage, draining liquidity, and forcing weak hands out of the market.
The current pullback is still early compared to past bear market lows, which is why Patel believes traders should be prepared for more downside if history plays out again.
However, Patel is clear that he isn’t telling people to sell. His main point is that Bitcoin corrections are part of the cycle, and ignoring them leads to bad decisions.
When markets get overheated, leverage builds up. Then the unwind begins. Liquidations hit, retail gets shaken out, and price falls much further than most expect. That’s usually when the real accumulation phase starts.
BITCOIN TO $30K? READ THIS BEFORE YOU PANIC
— Crypto Patel (@CryptoPatel) February 19, 2026
I've Traded Through Every $BTC Cycle Since 2017.
Here's What Nobody Wants To Hear Right Now:
Every Cycle, Bitcoin Corrects 75-85% From Its ATH. No Exceptions.
2017: $19.6K ATH → -84% Correction
2021: $69K ATH → -78% Correction… pic.twitter.com/ULKvYWrzgY
Does Bitcoin Price Really Need to Hit $30K?
A drop to $30K is not guaranteed. Markets don’t move in perfect symmetry, and every cycle has its own catalysts.
But the chart is a reminder that Bitcoin has a long history of deep corrections, even during long-term bull trends.
Anyone expecting the BTC price to only go up in a straight line is usually the one caught off guard when the cycle turns.
Read Also: A Once-in-7-Years XRP Pattern Is Back and Charts Show a Critical Countdown
Meanwhile, Bitcoin has already fallen sharply from its $126K peak, but Crypto Patel’s chart suggests the historical cycle correction may not be finished yet.
If the past repeats, the $30K region becomes the level to watch. Not as a prediction carved in stone, but as a reminder of what the Bitcoin price has done in every major cycle.
The main point is that Bitcoin drawdowns are brutal, but they are also where long-term positioning often begins.
Subscribe to our YouTube channel for daily crypto updates, market insights, and expert analysis.
