Toncoin (TON) price fell hard, sliding from above $6 from its January top down to around $1.55, a drop of roughly 74%. That move alone looks brutal, yet Bearhard from the “Bearhard – Bitcoin Strategy” YouTube channel argues the deeper story sits on-chain, not just on the price chart.
Looking beyond candles reveals a network that lost a large amount of dollar-based capital, even while parts of its internal activity refused to completely break down.
Bearhard starts by tying Toncoin price directly to capital flows. When a chain loses capital, price pressure often follows, even if usage does not immediately collapse.
TON chain TVL measured in US dollars kept trending lower for months. Around July, TVL stood near $767M. That figure later fell to about $84M, representing close to a 90% decline. Such a sharp contraction in dollar terms explains why TON price struggled to find support during that period.
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TVL Measured In TON Shows Activity Did Not Fully Collapse
The story becomes more complex when TVL is measured in TON rather than dollars. According to Bearhard, TVL in TON units largely moved sideways throughout the year.
Many assets on TON chain are directly linked to Toncoin price itself. When TON price falls, dollar-based metrics automatically shrink, even if the same number of tokens stays locked. This creates a disconnect where dollar TVL looks disastrous, while native activity appears far more stable.
Bearhard points out that other onchain indicators do not match the severity of the price crash. Chain revenue over time appears relatively steady. App fees even show growth rather than decline.
Decentralized exchange volume measured in TON also remained somewhat stable. New inflows did not rush in, yet existing activity did not vanish either. That combination makes the TON situation harder to summarize with a single bearish or bullish label.
Relative Valuation Charts Suggest TON Price May Be Depressed
Part of Bearhard’s analysis focuses on TON price relative to the broader altcoin market. When comparing TON against the rest of the altcoin market cap, price behavior tends to top out at similar levels historically.
The current bounce that appeared toward the end of November lines up closely with a bounce seen back in May 2022. That alignment raises the question of whether Toncoin price could be near a relative low again. Bearhard also notes that while downside risk still exists, potential upside in that relative framework appears larger than the downside, assuming the range holds.
A different picture emerges when TON is compared directly to Bitcoin. TON relative to Bitcoin used to trade in a range, yet that structure broke earlier in the year. Instead of bouncing, the pair shifted into a downtrend.
Bearhard attributes this largely to Bitcoin’s institutional support. Bitcoin ETFs continue to absorb supply, reducing actively traded liquidity. That dynamic does not guarantee higher Bitcoin prices, but it does help Bitcoin outperform many altcoins over time. TON price faces the same challenge most altcoins face when competing against that kind of structural demand.
Token Supply Growth Adds Ongoing Pressure To TON Price
Tokenomics also play a role. Bearhard highlights that the total supply of TON continues to increase over time. Supply growth creates potential sell pressure, especially if network growth does not accelerate fast enough to absorb it.
Circulating supply still has room to more than double, which stands in sharp contrast to Bitcoin’s much tighter supply structure. That difference raises the hurdle rate for TON. Growth needs to be strong enough not just to attract attention, but to offset ongoing inflation.
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Looking at accounts created per month on TON, Bearhard describes the trend as weak. Growth did not show strong acceleration, which limits the case for rapid expansion.
He also examines wrapped TON on Ethereum to study holder behavior. Wallets holding around $1,000 worth of TON, roughly 650 tokens, stopped accumulating around mid August. Similar behavior appeared among holders with about $10,000 worth of TON. Larger holders showed less selling pressure, though Bearhard stresses that the sample size for large wallets is small.
October 10 Liquidations Changed TON Derivatives Behavior
October 10 marked a major turning point. TON experienced a violent liquidation event, where price dropped about 80% within an hour before recovering. Roughly $53M in long liquidations wiped out leveraged positions betting on higher TON price.
Since that event, market behavior shifted. Funding rates that were once mostly positive began hovering around zero. Open interest dropped sharply from around $300M to roughly $100M. Even though open interest later jumped again around November 19, that increase did not translate into clear price movement, suggesting structural positioning rather than fresh bullish demand.
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Bearhard’s overall takeaway sits in the middle. Onchain activity measured in TON looks relatively stable. Dollar based capital clearly left the ecosystem, which weighs on Toncoin price. Structural factors like token inflation and Bitcoin’s institutional tailwinds also limit relative performance.
Toncoin price now reflects that tension. The network has not collapsed, yet it has not grown fast enough to outrun its own headwinds. Curiosity now centers on whether capital flows can reverse before those structural pressures do more long term damage.
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