The crypto market has a habit of feeling most uncomfortable right before something important shifts. Price drags sideways, sharp wicks appear without warning, and confidence slowly drains from the room. That uneasy stretch is exactly where the market sits again today. According to Ash Crypto, this phase looks strangely familiar to anyone who lived through the last major altcoin cycle.
The chart tracking crypto total market cap excluding top 10 shows a wide horizontal base that has held for years. That same zone acted as a floor before the 2020 to 2021 altseason unfolded. Price did not bounce cleanly back then. It chopped sideways, dipped below support briefly, and snapped back repeatedly.
Ash Crypto notes how that behavior is repeating. Support is being tested again and again rather than breaking cleanly. Each dip feels painful, yet the structure refuses to collapse. That kind of action usually signals pressure being absorbed rather than a trend ending.
Multi-year support matters because it reflects where long-term capital previously stepped in. When price returns to that level and holds, it often sets the stage for something larger once conditions shift.
What you'll learn 👉
Fed Ends QT Has Historically Marked Turning Points for Altcoins
One label on the chart stands out clearly. Fed ends QT. That moment appears just before the last major altcoin expansion. Ash Crypto points out that liquidity conditions tend to change after quantitative tightening pauses or ends. That shift does not always show up instantly in price, but it alters the environment beneath the surface.
Back in 2020, the Fed ending QT did not trigger immediate celebration. Altcoins continued to struggle for a while. Retests kept happening. Liquidation wicks kept shaking positions out. Only later did the real trend reveal itself.
That same setup is forming again as 2025 moves toward 2026. QT is winding down once more, and the market is sitting in a familiar holding pattern while waiting for liquidity to matter again.
Can we really see an alt season in 2026?
— Ash Crypto (@AshCrypto) December 16, 2025
Read this until the end.
Every major altcoin bull run has started with the same shift:
👉 The Fed stops QT
👉 Liquidity comes back
👉 Altcoins move fast
Here’s the part most people forget:
Before every big altseason, the market hurts.… pic.twitter.com/AI2Fy7Deaj
Liquidation Wicks Are Doing the Same Damage They Always Do
The chart shows sharp downside spikes that fail to follow through. Those moves hurt. They clear leverage and punish anyone positioned too aggressively. Ash Crypto stresses that this part of the cycle is not new. It happened before the last altseason and it is happening again now.
Liquidation wicks serve a purpose. They remove excess risk and reset positioning. Price rarely trends cleanly while leverage stays crowded. The market tends to clean itself first, even if that process feels brutal.
That is why the current environment feels exhausting rather than exciting. Historically, that exhaustion often comes before momentum builds, not after it fades.
Altseason Setups Usually Feel Wrong Before They Feel Obvious
Ash Crypto describes this stage as the part most people forget. Confidence is low. Price action looks messy. Support gets tested so often that it feels fragile even when it holds. Many participants exit during this phase because patience runs out.
The chart shows how similar the rhythm looks now compared to 2020, only on a larger scale. Structure has not broken. Liquidity conditions are shifting. The market keeps shaking itself without resolving direction.
That combination rarely leads to slow gradual rallies. When liquidity finally flips, moves tend to accelerate quickly, catching most people off guard.
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The projected path on the chart does not promise anything. It simply reflects how past cycles unfolded once similar conditions aligned. Ash Crypto emphasizes that markets do not reward comfort. They test conviction first.
Altcoins historically move fast once momentum arrives. The chart shows how quickly expansion followed once the base was complete last time. That memory is what makes the current structure so interesting, even while price feels uninspiring.
Nothing about this phase feels celebratory. The crypto market has always had a strange sense of timing. It frustrates, then surprises. Anyone watching closely may notice that the pieces on the board look familiar again, even if the outcome is not yet visible. Curiosity tends to grow quietly in moments like this, long before belief catches up.
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