Less than 3 days remain before the Bittensor halving, and anticipation hangs in the air. Halvings usually come with clear expectations, especially when supply mechanics take center stage. TAO enters this moment carrying hope from the past and pressure from the present.
Bittensor price climbed sharply between late September and early November, then lost momentum. TAO price now sits more than 40% below those highs, even as the halving draws close. That contrast sets the stage for an uncomfortable question. Does the halving automatically mean higher prices this time?
What you'll learn 👉
Bittensor Halving Expectations Clash With Recent TAO Price Action
Halving events often lean on a familiar idea. Reduced inflation limits new supply, which can ease selling pressure. Scarcity then becomes the core argument for upside. That logic feels intuitive, especially to those familiar with Bitcoin cycles.
TAO does not operate in isolation. Bittensor relies on an active ecosystem of subnets, builders, and incentives. Price reflects how well those pieces stay aligned. Weakness ahead of a major supply event introduces doubt rather than confirmation.
Léo Mercier, a crypto commentator on X, frames this moment as a reminder that markets rarely behave as expected. He made an analysis that breaks away from a single outcome and explores paths that feel less comfortable yet possible.
Scenario A Shows The Classic TAO Halving Thesis
Scenario A, based on Léo Mercier’s analysis, outlines the view most often discussed around the halving. TAO inflation drops by half and reduced emissions ease sell pressure. Scarcity supports higher prices over time.
That pathway assumes the ecosystem remains steady while supply tightens, participation stays intact, and demand absorbs the shift smoothly. Price responds in line with the model. Markets sometimes follow that script, and it could also break it when assumptions fail to hold.
TAO halving shows the market is always unpredictable and unexpected.
— Léo Mercier (@leomercier) December 9, 2025
Scenario A$TAO inflation reduces by half, less sell pressure = price goes up as more scarcity. The majority thinks this as displayed by the move out of subnets and into Tao in preparation for this. Hoping…
Scenario B Warns Of Stagnation After The Halving
Scenario B shifts focus away from price alone and toward incentives. Inflation still decreases, yet immediate rewards for building on Bittensor also shrink. Builders may reassess their commitment. Some participants may step back during that adjustment.
Selling pressure can appear even with lower emissions if engagement cools. TAO price under this scenario struggles to regain momentum as stagnation replaces excitement. This could make expectations fade into frustration.
This outcome challenges the idea that supply reduction automatically supports price. Ecosystem health becomes the deciding factor.
Scenario C Connects TAO Price To Subnet Growth (The Most Likely Scenario)
Scenario C blends patience with fundamentals. Inflation drops as planned, and TAO price fails to move right away. Attention drifts elsewhere as immediate results fail to appear.
Subnets continue developing beneath the surface, and real progress happens quietly. Breakouts emerge from specific subnets rather than the headline token. This could make value flow back once the utility proves itself.
Léo Mercier views this scenario as the most likely. TAO only works if subnets work. A successful subnet lifts the broader ecosystem and makes TAO accretive over time.
Read Also: Internet Computer (ICP) Price Nears Zone That Triggered Last Big Rally: Will a Similar Move Come?
Bittensor Price May Follow Utility Rather Than The Halving Date
This framework places less weight on the calendar and more on participation. Bittensor price responds to incentives, builder activity, and real output. Halving mechanics matter, yet they do not override everything else.
TAO price could remain muted even as supply tightens. Strength may arrive later through subnet success rather than immediate market reaction. That outcome feels slower and less dramatic, though it aligns closely with how complex networks grow.
Curiosity replaces certainty as the halving approaches. Watching how subnets evolve after the event may reveal more than the first few price candles. The story of TAO appears far from finished, and the next chapter may unfold in ways few expect.
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