Analyst Cameron, who has close to 100k followers on X, has made one of the more aggressive calls in the current cycle. Sharing a weekly Bitcoin chart, he declared that a bear market is already underway and predicted that BTC will bottom somewhere between $57,000 and $37,000 around December 2026. His comment was blunt: “Bear Market is upon us. $BTC bottom out $57k – $37k at or around Dec 2026. Save the date, Sell your house and prepare to buy that dip.”
On the chart, Cameron lines up the last three major Bitcoin cycles using vertical bands. Each grey rectangle marks a full bear market phase, measured from cycle peak to final capitulation low. In the 2017–2018 bear market band, the drop spans roughly 14 months with a deep drawdown. The second band covers the 2021–2022 cycle, again showing a long grind lower with a heavy percentage loss.
He then projects a third, similar rectangle into the future, starting from the current cycle’s recent highs and stretching all the way to the end of 2026. Inside that rectangle he plots Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the assumed peak downwards. The key levels are the 0.5 line around the low $70k–$80k region, the 0.618 line near $57k, and the 0.786 retracement closer to $37k. His green path sketch has Bitcoin drifting lower over the next year, breaking the 0.5 level, tagging the 0.618 and 0.786 zone into late 2026, then reversing into a huge new bull run.
A long-term moving average (the blue line) runs through all three cycles and appears to act as a “mean reversion” level. In previous cycles, price eventually fell below this line during the deepest part of the bear market before reclaiming it on the way back up. Cameron’s projection assumes a similar move this time, with BTC cutting through the moving average on its way to that $37k–$57k cluster.
How realistic is this? From a structural point of view, the idea of a multi-year bear market after a major peak is not unusual for Bitcoin. Past cycles saw 70–80% drawdowns from the top. If the current cycle peak ends up around $130k–$150k, a drop to the $40k range would represent a 60–75% correction, which fits within historical norms. The timing also mirrors earlier cycles, with roughly three to four years between major tops.
However, there are big unknowns. Bitcoin now has spot ETFs, institutional allocators, and a very different liquidity profile than in 2018 or 2022. These factors could soften any future drawdown or change the rhythm of the cycle altogether. It is also not yet confirmed that the current cycle has even put in its final top; the market may still be in a mid-cycle correction rather than a true post-peak bear.
Cameron’s chart offers a useful “stress-test” scenario: a long, grinding bear market ending with a huge opportunity in late 2026. It is a path the market could take, but not a guaranteed outcome. Traders can treat it as one possible roadmap among many, rather than a fixed date to “sell the house” and bet everything on a single, distant bottom.
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