Bitcoin price has declined 10% from its all-time high price of around $124,000. Is this the end of the bull run, or is there much more ahead?
In addressing this issue, Crypto Birb, a well-known market analyst on X with more than 700k followers, believes the bull run still has around 60 days to go. He shared a detailed explanation of why the cycle is not yet over and why October and November could be critical months.
According to Birb, Bitcoin follows a clear cycle pattern. Looking at past bull runs, the length from cycle low to cycle high has stretched over similar timelines. For example, the cycle from 2015 to 2017 lasted 1,068 days, while the cycle from 2018 to 2021 ran for 1,061 days.
This current cycle has already gone on for 1,007 days, which suggests that Bitcoin is in the final 5% to 8% of its run.
1/ Reminder about cycle maths (low→high):
— CRYPTO₿IRB (@crypto_birb) August 25, 2025
• 2010–2011: ~350 days
• 2011–2013: 746 days
• 2015–2017: 1,068 days
• 2018–2021: 1,061 days
• 2022-2025: 1,007 days so far.
We're tracking toward 1,060–1,100 days.
That literally puts us in the last 5-8%. pic.twitter.com/4mB24NyqVC
He also tied this analysis to the halving effect. After every halving, Bitcoin usually reaches a peak about 500 days later. Since the last halving in April 2024, 492 days have passed. This puts the expected peak between October 19 and November 20, 2025, about two months from now.
Birb noted that bear markets usually follow the same pattern after each peak. In past cycles, the drop from top to bottom lasted around 370 to 410 days, with losses of over 60%. If the pattern repeats, the next bear market could start in 2026. He warned that long-term investors should not ignore this cycle.
Seasonal data also supports his timeline. August has historically been a weak month for BTC price, showing negative returns. September is usually worse, with an average loss of more than 6%. On the other hand, October and November have historically been strong months. This seasonal pattern aligns perfectly with the predicted cycle peak window.
BTC Technical Indicators Point to Key Levels
At the time of Birb’s tweet, Bitcoin price was trading near $111,950, with strong support at $97,000. He mentioned that Bitcoin’s link to stocks is getting weaker, which often signals a local bottom.
On the daily chart, Bitcoin is holding above $110,000. If this level stays firm, the overall uptrend remains safe. For short-term traders, Birb noted that demand is between $110,200 and $112,000, while supply is expected between $116,600 and $118,400. These ranges will guide the next moves.
On-Chain and Bitcoin ETF Flows
On-chain metrics show no signs of stress. Mining costs are around $97,000, while profitability remains strong. Indicators such as NUPL and MVRV suggest that the market is still healthy. From an on-chain perspective, there is no immediate risk of capitulation.
10/ Key takeaway is this:
— CRYPTO₿IRB (@crypto_birb) August 25, 2025
We're 60 days away from Bitcoin’s historical blow-off window (Oct 15 – Nov 15, 2025); last Oct week.
ETFs record outflows, but cycle + halving math + seasonality all point to Q4 grand finale.
(for full ETH review – see below)https://t.co/rUmdnnUNXt
However, ETF flows have been mixed. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $382 million in trading volume within 24 hours but also showed a net outflow of $194 million on August 21. Despite these short-term exits, institutions remain heavily invested, with total assets under management at $160.4 billion.
Birb stated that the cycle may still have about 60 days before hitting a possible peak. The key period is between October 15 and November 15, 2025. Despite ETF outflows, factors like cycle timing, halving patterns, and seasonality suggest a significant move could come in Q4.
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Bitcoin price may look shaky after its 10% pullback, but history, technicals, and cycle patterns suggest the market is not finished yet. If Crypto Birb’s analysis is correct, the most explosive phase of this bull run could still be ahead, with a peak expected within the next two months. After that, however, traders should prepare for the risk of a bear market in 2026.
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