Bitcoin has been trading around $115,000 after breaking into new highs this summer, but some analysts warn the current bull cycle may be close to peaking. Two well-followed voices on X, Ali and Rekt Capital, have shared charts that suggest the end of the run could come sooner than many expect.
What you'll learn 👉
Ali’s Glassnode Analysis
Analyst @ali_charts posted a chart from Glassnode comparing Bitcoin’s price performance since the cycle low to previous cycles. The data shows that in the 2015–2018 cycle, BTC gained over 9,000% before topping out. In the 2018–2022 cycle, the increase was smaller, at around 1,600%.
Based on the last two Bitcoin $BTC cycles, the next market top could be just 2 months away. Things could get wild! pic.twitter.com/eQeInhtuUA
— Ali (@ali_charts) August 23, 2025
For the current 2022 cycle, Bitcoin has already posted massive gains. Ali notes that based on the rhythm of past cycles, the next market top could arrive in just two months, around October 2025. His message was blunt: “Things could get wild.”
The takeaway from his chart is that each cycle has delivered diminishing returns, and the current cycle is following the same pattern. With BTC already up thousands of percent from its lows, the timing for a peak fits the historical pattern.
Rekt Capital’s Cycle Progress Chart
Another respected analyst, Rekt Capital, shared his own perspective on August 14th. He posted a monthly Bitcoin chart showing the structure of the 2017, 2021, and 2025 cycles.
#BTC Bull Market Progress:
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) August 14, 2025
▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓░ 93.8%
(Progress will speed up on Parabolic advances)$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/3Pe4BDsDEI
In both 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin peaked roughly two years after halving events, before entering a bear market. His chart indicates the current 2025 cycle is in the final stages of its run. He even quantified it: “BTC Bull Market Progress: 93.8%.”
That figure means the bull market is nearly complete, with only the parabolic end phase left. Historically, these last stages produce extreme price action – rapid gains followed by sharp corrections.
What This Means for Bitcoin
Both charts point to the same conclusion: Bitcoin may be much closer to the top than many traders want to believe. Ali sees a potential peak in two months based on cycle performance. Rekt Capital believes the market is already 94% through the cycle, with parabolic advances to come before a correction.
If the pattern holds, the next few months could bring the final explosive rally of this bull market. After that, history suggests a long cooling-off period.
For investors, the key may be balancing excitement with caution. While Bitcoin could still make big moves higher in the short term, past cycles suggest the window for those gains may be closing fast.
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